Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida
252 PM EDT Friday may 24 2013
..enhanced threat of rip currents at area beaches through the
Holiday weekend...
..dry weather next few days...
Short term...
rest of this afternoon...deep/dry northwest flow resulting in mostly sunny
skies except for scattered cumulus over the S zones. Frontal boundary may be
just north of this cumulus field. Temperatures are in the Lower-Middle 80s for most
part with 90 degree readings in Marion County. Northwesterly flow
Tonight...mostly clear conds expected and winds will decrease below
10 miles per hour. The cooler and drier airmass will lead to cooler mins with
majority of the County Warning Area expected to drop below 60 degree...mainly 53 to 58
degree inland. Not a good chance of record lows but will note below.
Saturday...cooler maximum temperatures than today and have made minor tweaks to
warm temperatures from prior forecast. Highs in middle 80s inland and around 77-82
near the coast. Northeasterly winds near 15 miles per hour coastal counties and 10-15
miles per hour inland. Sunny/mostly sunny skies expected.
Record min temperatures for may 25th (value/year)
amg48/1954
ssi55/1967
jax55/1892
gnv52/1931
Long term (sunday-friday)...high cirrus will begin to blanket the
area as a short wave upper level trough progresses downstream of the
southeast region into Monday. An extended period of onshore flow is expected
next week as the surface high pressure ridge axis meanders over
SC/GA. The main hazard will be an elevated rip current risk. Mostly
dry conditions are expected due to mean layer ridging over the southeast
region...but continued with a low 20% chance of mainly coastal
showers Tue-Fri. Maximum temperatures will be near to slightly above climatology
values with highs near 80 along the coast under breezy onshore
flow...to the upper 80s inland toward the Interstate 75 corridor.
Min temperatures will range from near to slightly below climatology values with
values near 70 along the Atlantic to the low 60s inland.
&&
Aviation...prevailing VFR.
&&
Marine...N-NE winds increase tonight as high pressure will be directly
north of the area providing for tightening pressure gradient. Have
enough confidence to go with a Small Craft Advisory for portion of the
outer waters from about 10 PM to 5 am tonight. Certainly looks to be
low end/short duration Small Craft Advisory event. Otherwise...most of the waters
will have scec conds with winds of 15-20 knots. Seas will not build
much higher than 5-6 feet due to the relatively short duration.
Saturday...NE winds still near 15-20 knots through first part of the
day then back off to 10-15 knots after 4 PM with seas down to 4 feet.
Rip currents: moderate risk of rip currents expected for Sat due to
northeasterly surge of winds and rougher surf.
&&
Fire weather...much drier air will filter over the region through
the weekend with afternoon relative humidities falling into the 20's
inland. Breezy northwest winds and low relative humidity has prompted a red flag
warning for the Suwannee Valley this afternoon. High dispersions are
also expected this afternoon due to mixing...strong transport
winds...and warm afternoon temperatures. Sustained winds will be around 15
miles per hour with gusts to near 25 miles per hour. Sustained winds will decrease to less
than 15 miles per hour across the inland areas over the weekend...but will be
15 to 20 miles per hour from the northeast along the coast on Saturday. Rh's
will begin to rebound next week as high pressure moves offshore and
the flow veers into the east.
&&
Preliminary point temps/pops...
amg 53 84 52 87 / 0 0 0 0
ssi 61 77 61 80 / 0 0 0 0
jax 58 81 54 83 / 0 0 0 0
sgj 66 79 61 79 / 0 0 0 0
gnv 58 86 54 85 / 0 0 0 0
ocf 61 87 57 86 / 0 0 0 0
&&
Jax watches/warnings/advisories...
Florida...red flag warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for Baker-Columbia-
Gilchrist-Hamilton-Suwannee-Union.
Georgia...none.
Am...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 am EDT
Saturday for Altamaha Sound Georgia to Fernandina Beach Florida 20 nm
to 60 nm offshore-Fernandina Beach to St Augustine Florida 20 nm
to 60 nm offshore.
&&
$$
Shashy/Peterson/Chase
