Scientific Forecaster Discussion

NWS Discussion
			
				

Area forecast discussion 
National Weather Service Jacksonville Florida 
949 am EDT sun may 19 2013 


Update... 
quiet conditions occurring this morning with broken to overcast 
low clouds increasing along the I-75 corridor and mostly sunny 
skies near the East Coast of NE Florida. Next shortwave trough to 
affect our area this afternoon/evening is over central Georgia and will 
arrive during peak heating when sea breezes are active. Similar to 
yesterday...expectations are for some strong storms with gusty 
winds...hail and excessive lightning. 


&& 


Aviation... 
prevailing VFR. Convection is expected to develop this afternoon 
due to sea breeze enhanced diurnal instability. Have a tempo for 
thunderstorms and rain in the middle to late afternoon. 


&& 


Marine... 
buoys are reporting winds southeast to S 5-15 knots and mainly 3 feet seas. 
Forecast is on track and no changes in the update. 


Rip currents: low risk continues today then as swells begin to 
impact the coast...moderate risk expected early this week. 


&& 


Preliminary point temps/pops... 
amg 87 67 87 65 / 50 30 50 20 
ssi 81 71 80 69 / 30 20 40 20 
jax 85 68 85 66 / 50 30 50 30 
sgj 82 69 81 69 / 30 20 40 20 
gnv 88 67 87 64 / 50 40 50 30 
ocf 90 67 87 66 / 50 40 50 30 


&& 


Jax watches/warnings/advisories... 
Florida...none. 
Georgia...none. 
Am...none. 
&& 


$$ 


Trabert/guillet/