Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klch 221121
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles la
621 am CDT Tue Oct 22 2019
VFR conditions will prevail across the region today with clear
skies. Light/variable winds this morning will become north/NE at 7-12
knots and continue through the afternoon.
Previous discussion... /issued 331 am CDT Tue Oct 22 2019/
Short term...today through Wednesday
main forecast issue will be temperatures. High pressure is
building in the wake of the front that moved through the area on
Monday. Overall, dry weather is expected. Temperatures will be
near or just below seasonal norms. High pressure center will shift
toward the southeast U.S. On Wednesday but no appreciable
moisture return is forecasted during this period.
Long term...Wednesday night through Monday
models are consistent with shifting winds more easterly as
surface ridge axis lifts north on Thursday. Also an upper trough
and cold front will approach the Southern Plains. Believe this
will be sufficient for some shower activity on Thursday. Rain
chances will better on Friday as upper short wave energy will pass
closer to the area. GFS/European model (ecmwf) models diverge fairly significantly
with GFS more progressive with surface and upper features. For
now will maintain low pops through the weekend and into early next
week. Temperatures overall should be slightly below normal.
Marine...will maintain Small Craft Advisory for offshore waters and scec through
00z Wednesday. While gradient should begin to weaken tonight,
east/southeast flow will increase over the northern Gulf beginning
Wednesday night. Above normal tides are likely and there will be a
potential for coastal flooding during high tide Wednesday night
through Thursday night. Models are hinting at a surface wave over
western Gulf lifting northeast early this weekend. This will
bring a good chance for moderate to strong offshore flow.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
aex 75 45 74 49 / 0 0 0 0
lch 77 49 75 55 / 0 0 0 0
lft 75 47 74 52 / 0 0 0 0
bpt 78 52 75 60 / 0 0 0 0
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for gmz470-472-
Small craft exercise caution through this evening for gmz450-452-