Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klix 182106
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
406 PM CDT sun Aug 18 2019
Short term (tonight through wednesday)...
The forecast area will remain on the eastern periphery of a large,
hot Continental high over northern Mexico into the southern to
Central Plains. This will place the central Gulf Coast region in
weak north to northeast flow in the mid levels through Wednesday.
Increased deeper layer moisture with precipitable water (pw) over 2
inches moved into most of the forecast area today resulting in
scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy
rainfall. Monday is expected to be very similar to today with
perhaps slightly higher coverage/chances of showers and
thunderstorms, then Tuesday should have a bit less coverage of
convection as the eastern lobe of the 500 mb high is expected to
build a bit east into portions of the lower Mississippi Valley
resulting in precipitable water lowering back into the 1.75 to 1.9
inch range. A weakness/disturbance is then expected to move south
into the central Gulf Coast region on Wednesday which may cause
another slight uptick in precipitable water and rain chances. Temperatures are
expected to remain closer to the seasonal normals.
Long term (thursday through sunday)...
A fairly potent shortwave trough will move southeast to east across
the Great Lakes and northeast states Thursday into Friday with a
tropical wave or inverted trough lifting northwest to north from the
south central and southwest Gulf into the northwest Gulf. The
combination of these two features should not have significant
impacts to the forecast area, but rather maintain a moist Summer
pattern with elevated rain chances through the period. 22/dew point
Aviation... VFR conditions prevail at all area airports currently.
However, vicinity showers and thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and early evening that will likely cause lower ceilings
and visibilities for several area airports. Wind shifts greater than
30 degrees are also possible with these storms. No fog is expected.
southerly to southwesterly winds will prevail through next weekend.
Winds are expected to be light (<15 knots) through the forecast
period. Corresponding to the winds, wave heights are expected to be
lower as well. Msw
dss code: green.
Activities: marginal risk of excessive rainfall
Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.
Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.
Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical
events; hazmat or other large episodes.
Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and/or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 74 92 73 93 / 30 70 10 60
btr 77 92 75 92 / 20 70 20 50
asd 75 91 73 92 / 30 60 30 60
msy 79 90 77 92 / 30 60 30 50
gpt 76 89 74 89 / 30 70 40 60
pql 74 91 73 92 / 40 70 40 60