Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klix 242044
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
344 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2019
a line of showers and storms moved across the forecast area today
allowing for cooler than expected daytime highs. There will still
be a few showers around the area through the evening hours but the
overall trend is rain will be ending in the early evening. High
pressure will start to build in from the east mainly across the
Gulf of Mexico. A upper level disturbance will move across the
area Tuesday and showers and storms should break out across the
northern portions of the forecast area. The Storm Prediction
Center added the forecast area into a marginal risk for severe
weather for Tuesday. This is mainly for some isolated stronger
storms in the afternoon and evening hours. Widespread severe
weather is not expected. Moving towards mid week expect the ridge
to hold on across the area. Daily diurnal showers and storms for
Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 90s each day will be the
going into the weekend the ridge will slowly break down some and
allow for greater coverage in convection on Friday and through the
weekend. We will transition more to the typical summertime pattern
later in the weekend into next week. Highs in the 90s, and daily
showers and storms. 13/mh
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Tuesday. Regarding
convection, have removed thunderstorms in the vicinity from this afternoon as cirrus shield
has remained rather thick. While isolated development cannot be
ruled out, especially at kbtr and kmcb, threat is too low to mention
in main portion of the forecast. Winds should not be gusty like last
several days and remain mostly 10 knots or less. 22/35
southwest flow will continue through tonight. High pressure will
build in over the coastal waters for the majority of the week.
This will lead to light winds over the waters and influenced by
diurnal fluctuations and convection. Seas will behave with 2-4
feet through tonight lowering to 1-3 after through the rest of
the week. Winds shift back to a southeasterly flow later in the
week. Rain chances will go up later in the week over the coastal
waters as the ridge weakens.
dss code: blue.
Activities: Mississippi River flood warnings
marginal risk of severe weather Tuesday.
Decision support services (dss) code legend
green = no weather impacts that require action.
Blue = long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or high
visibility event; marginal risk severe or excessive rain.
Yellow = heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning or
advisory issuances; radar support for slight risk severe
or excessive rain.
Orange = high impacts; enhanced risk severe; nearby tropical events;
hazmat or other large episodes.
Red = full engagement for moderate to high risk of severe and/or
excessive rainfall, or direct tropical threats; events of
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 73 92 71 91 / 20 40 30 20
btr 75 92 73 94 / 20 30 10 20
asd 75 94 73 94 / 10 30 10 20
msy 78 94 77 93 / 10 20 10 10
gpt 77 91 75 92 / 10 30 10 20
pql 75 93 73 94 / 20 20 10 20