Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klix 212147
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
447 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019
a strong ridge will continue to dominate the southeastern United
States bringing drier and above normal temperatures back into the
region to start off the new week. A slight weakness in the ridge
on Monday and Tuesday as trough moves across the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. An associated frontal boundary will sag down into
the arklatex by Monday evening. The boundary is expected to wash
out by Tuesday evening...never making it into the forecast area.
primarily dry and well above normal temperatures will continue
from Wednesday through Friday as a 590 upper level ridge
continues to park over the northern Gulf states. A repeat of
Monday evening once again on Wednesday into Thursday morning as
another trough swings through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes
region bringing another weak frontal boundary down as far south as
Memphis and north central Arkansas by Thursday afternoon.
However...trough swings east and ridge rebuilds once again leaving
no frontal passage throughout the entire forecast period. Temperatures
will remain well above normal once again as high temperatures
could approach the lower 90s. Pops will remain very minimal
through the period with the best chance being on Thursday with
only token 20s and 30s even on Thursday.
VFR category conditions will generally prevail through Sunday as
showers will continue to diminish in coverage. Inland terminals
that received rainfall might receive some brief periods of
reduced visibilities between 9z and 12z as nights grow
increasingly longer allowing for more radiational cooling.
Marine...a strong east to southeast flow will continue overnight
tonight leaving small craft advisories and exercise cautions
through 7am Sunday. Winds will subside by late tonight and early
tomorrow morning. A light east to southeast flow on Monday will
continue then more of a south to southwesterly flow will take
shape by mid to late next week as surface high slides off to the
east over the northeastern Gulf and Atlantic Ocean.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 68 89 68 92 / 0 0 0 0
btr 71 89 70 91 / 0 0 0 0
asd 69 89 68 91 / 10 10 0 0
msy 75 90 74 90 / 10 0 0 0
gpt 71 86 70 88 / 0 30 0 0
pql 69 89 68 91 / 0 20 0 0
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am CDT Sunday for gmz532-536-538-
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am CDT Sunday for gmz536-538-550-