Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klix 162127
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
427 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2019
a upper level low is in the northern Gulf of Mexico just southeast
of the Texas coast, along with high pressure building north of
Mississippi Valley. Tropical moisture from the low has been
feeding showers and thunderstorms that have been for the most part
offshore with some bands extending inland. This convection should
die off tonight. A similar looking story is in store for tomorrow
as the moisture pushes even further inland. Heavy rainfall could
be possible with some of these storms near the coast. High
temperatures are a bit above normal due to subsidence from the
high pressure associated with the ridge further eastward.
Looking towards Thursday into Friday, a trough from the northwest
states will sweep the low hanging near Texas along with it as well
as push the ridge eastward. It looks possible that a weak frontal
boundary could push into our area on Sunday.
VFR conditions can be expected through Tuesday evening. However,
scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will bring a threat near
kmsy, khum, knew and possibly through kbtr through 23z this
afternoon. Some storms may produce gusty, erratic surface winds
in excess of 25 to 30 knots. Look for most of this activity to
diminish late this afternoon and evening with VFR conditions
prevailing through the overnight hours tonight. 18
a tropical disturbance off the northern Gulf of Mexico will
produce some showers and thunderstorms as it moves westward.
Current small craft exercise caution criteria winds will slowly
decrease today into tonight and stay light until around late
Thursday into Friday where the next chance of a Small Craft
Advisory is possible. -Bl
dss code: blue.
Activities: marginal risk for excessive rainfall southeast la.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
mcb 71 93 72 94 / 10 10 10 10
btr 74 93 73 93 / 10 30 10 20
asd 73 94 72 94 / 10 20 10 10
msy 79 93 78 93 / 20 30 10 10
gpt 75 91 74 90 / 20 10 0 10
pql 73 93 73 93 / 20 20 0 10