Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 klkn 202141
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Elko Nevada
241 PM PDT Fri Sep 20 2019
Synopsis...clearing skies overnight into early Saturday morning
will cause widespread frost and near or below freezing temperatures
across much of northern and central Nevada. Areas of fog will
also be possible in locations that received heavier rainfall on
Thursday. Otherwise, Saturday and Sunday afternoons will feature
pleasant early Fall weather as temperatures warm back up into the
60s and 70s. A weaker weather system will provide a chance of
light showers Sunday evening into Monday.
Short term...Friday evening through Sunday evening.
Lingering moisture associated with departing upper trough will
keep a few widely scattered light rain/higher- Elevation Mountain
snow showers going mainly over portions of Elko County through
early evening (even had a few cloud-to-ground strikes around LaMoille Canyon
in the Ruby Mountains shortly after 1 pm). Otherwise, cloud cover
is expected to break up this evening with skies becoming partly
cloudy to mostly clear overnight into early Saturday morning which
will lead to widespread frost with near or below freezing
temperatures. Areas of fog will likely develop in parts of
Humboldt, northern Lander/Eureka and Elko counties where heavier
rain fell over the past couple of days. Frost and patchy fog could
redevelop again Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
Weak ridging will provide pleasant early Fall weather for Saturday
and Sunday as afternoon temperatures warm back up into the 60s
and 70s. Clouds will increase ahead of a weaker weather system
Sunday afternoon and evening where light showers could develop in
Humboldt County before overspreading the rest of the region later
Sunday night into Monday.
Long term...Sunday night through next Friday.
Moderate to high confidence in the beginning of the long term
from Sunday night through Wednesday that sharp upper trough will
dig southeast across the Great Basin with a brief spat of
rain/snow Monday, followed by a Flat Ridge Tuesday then quasi-
zonal flow Wednesday. Tuesday and Wednesday look dry. Even
monday's system has widespread pops in the 25-50% range but low
quantitative precipitation forecast totals. Next chance for rain is later Thursday into Friday,
but confidence at this time is low to below average with serious
differences between models' timing, orientation, and moisture
profiles. Best thing to do is lower the pops for Friday a few
points. Have also lowered the Max temps by about 4 degrees Friday
as models to depict trajectories conducive to colder inflow. Also,
the mex guidance was significantly lower than currently forecast
highs for Friday. Did not lower that far, but came to a
compromise. Overall, mostly warm but not above normal highs. Lows
contingent on cloud cover so chilly at best, cold at worst: 30s
into 20s, with some 40s over central Nevada.
exiting upper system will keep a few showers over northeast
Nevada into Friday night. Mostly likely over keko, then kbam, then
perhaps vicinity kely. Least likely at kwmc, and finally ktph.
The atmosphere is over northern Nevada is still saturated from
yesterday's record rains. Dense fog is possible at keko, less
dense at kbam, and vcfg at kwmc. Not likely at kely and ktph.
Mountain obscurations are likely through Friday night and into
Saturday at keko, kbam, kwmc and possible at kely. Not as likely
at ktph. Mountain obscurations are also likely en Route over the
northern and central Great Basin.
For airfield operators, temperatures at many sites could drop below
freezing Friday night/Saturday morning. With wet fields and
surroundings some ice could possibly form on grounds and outside
Fire weather...no critical fire weather concerns expected over
the weekend into early next week as recent wet weather followed
by cooler temperatures and lighter winds pose no significant
threats for new fire starts or impacts to existing burn scars.