Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 klkn 230906
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Elko Nevada
206 am PDT Wed Oct 23 2019
Synopsis...Pacific high pressure will bring dry conditions to
the Great Basin through Friday. A low pressure system will pass
through Nevada over the weekend bringing some gusty winds, a few
showers, and much cooler temperatures.
Short term...today through Friday. Temperatures are rather mild
across northern Nevada this morning and didn't fall below freezing
across central Nevada until midnight. Satellite imagery shows the
most dense cloud field moving through eastern Nevada as progress
of the Pacific Ridge is temporarily being impeded by a weak
shortwave passing to the east of the state. High pressure will
soon flex its muscle once again, keeping things dry through Friday.
Pacific high pressure will drift eastward towards coastal
California. A northerly flow aloft will persist. High temperatures
will be a little cooler than normal in the daytime today and
Thursday then spike to above-normal on Friday as Central High
pressure moves onshore into California and the ridge expands over
the Great Basin. High temperatures will range from the mid 50s to
the mid 60s today and Thursday, then range from the lower 60s to
the lower 70s on Friday. Low temperatures will generally be in the
Long term...Friday night through next Tuesday.
Ridging in the west continues to get flattened at the start of the
long term as a longwave trof drops down out of Canada. A cold
front passage remains likely on Saturday afternoon and evening.
Though global models and ensembles are still not in complete
agreement over the weekend, a dry cold front passage is still the
more likely scenario and the nbm is trending even drier
towards this solution. Stronger winds are possible Saturday
evening in northeastern Nevada in the resultant northwest flow. A
cooling trend will begin on Saturday night behind the cold front.
Colder air will no doubt filter down south out of Canada. Not
overly high confidence, however, as to how cold it will actually
get. It is dependent on how far southwest the longwave trof digs,
which is not clear at this time. For now continued with highs in
the 40's and 50's Sunday & Monday and lows in the mid teens to mid
Aviation...VFR for the next 24 hours at all terminals.