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fxus65 klkn 102306 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Elko Nevada
306 PM PST Tue Dec 10 2019

Synopsis...a weak weather system will move through the area
tonight into tomorrow, bringing light rain and snow showers to
northern Nevada. Accumulations will be light. A more moist Pacific
system will be on the way into the area by Thursday and lasting
through the weekend, bringing widespread rain and snow showers to
the area.


Short term...tonight through Friday. A weak weather system will
traverse northern and central Nevada tonight and tomorrow,
bringing a round of light precipitation to the area. Amounts will
be on the light side with less than a half inch on the higher
passes. Overnight lows tonight will be in the 20s. Winds will be

A brief break in the weather will commence Wednesday afternoon as
the area sees rising heights. Afternoon high temperatures will be
in the 40s over the area with light winds. Clouds and chances for
precipitation will be on the increase for the Wednesday night to
Thursday timeframe as a strong Pacific jet and attendant moisture
push into the area from northern California. Snow levels will be
low - at about 4500 to 5500 feet during the overnight, but will
rise during the late morning into the early afternoon hours
Thursday to 6500 to 7000 feet. Winds could be a little breezy
near the Idaho/Nevada border, but nothing reaching advisory
criteria is expected. The upper level ridge will sag southward,
allowing cooler air to slowly shift south Thursday night into
Friday. Overnight lows will be in the mid 30s, though some
locations in northern Elko County could be in the 20s. Afternoon
highs will be in the 40s, though cooler temperatures will remain
in the Jarbidge Wilderness. Winter headline products may be
required for portions of northern Nevada, depending on snow levels
and the amount of cold air infiltrating into the area. This is
also expected to be a somewhat wet event, with quantitative precipitation forecast values of 0.50
to 1 inch of rain and snow possible across portions of
Lander/Eureka, and Elko counties.

Long term...Friday night through next Tuesday.

Confidence continues to improve for an atmospheric river (ar)
event impacting Nevada late in the week and during the weekend. The Arkansas
event should last until it is broken up by the formation of a
progressive trough on Sunday. Once the trough departs on Monday a
ridge will settle across the Silver state for a few days and
possibly longer.

The moisture fetch for the Arkansas event should initially go to the
north of the sierras in the Snake River Valley area. This moisture
should then migrate southward into Nevada. This will allow for more
moisture than is typical to infiltrate the High Basin and range
portions of Nevada. In fact this system is looking to be a top 10% or
higher event with respect to moisture. Once the trough forms on
Sunday it will being to migrate the moisture to the south and east
out of the Silver state. By Monday the moisture should have in
large departed with dry air moving into the area with the ridge.

What this means for the weather in Nevada is that the weekend will be
very wet. Friday will already have precipitation across a large
swath of northern and central Nevada. The lower valleys will still be
seeing rain to a rain snow mix with higher elevations having
already transitioned to all snow. As Friday evening continues the
valleys will then transitions to a mix than pure snow. The snow
should then continue to Sunday morning. As Sunday progresses the
snow will will become lighter and cease as the moisture departs
the area. This ceasing should start in the northwest and progress
to the east and south. Monday should see calm and dry weather with
the dry air moving into the region. Accumulations of snow during
this time should be several inches for the valleys and half to a
full foot in the mountains. In additions to all the precipitaion
there will be a strong jet over Nevada during the Arkansas event. However
this jet does not look to mix down to much with winds not expected
to especially strong outside the tallest of mountains. This may
change as the event comes closer to occurrence. If the winds do
mix down it will make the impacts from the snowfall even worse.

Max temps will drop into the 30s and 20s during the event and will
stay as such into next week. The low temperatures will gradually
drop from the 20s into the tens and single digits by next week.


Aviation...a weak system will be passing through northern Nevada
tonight and early Wednesday morning bringing some snow and low
ceilings. This has the highest chance of impacting kwmc with a
lesser chance for both kbam and keko. The system will depart
during Wednesday morning with improved conditions. Mountain
obscurations will be present where the snow and low ceilings are
present. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.


Lkn watches/warnings/advisories...

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