Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klub 201133 aaa
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
633 am CDT Thu Jun 20 2019
VFR conditions in place with no signs of MVFR ceilings at the
terminals. VFR will continue through the day. Confidence remains
low at this time for storms this afternoon at the taf sites and
will continue with tafs that are dry for all three sites.
Previous discussion... /issued 326 am CDT Thu Jun 20 2019/
no major changes to this forecast package. We continue to go
slighlty below guidance for highs on both Thursday and Friday.
Models have continued to be too warm this week as they appear to be
struggling with resolving the unusually moist ground for this time
of year. Capping looks to win out across most of the region today as
the dryline moves towards the edge of the caprock; however, there is
the slimmest of possibilities that a rogue storm may pop-up in the
heat of the day. Much better storm chances arise tomorrow as the
dryline travels eastward. Models have consistently shown storms
breaking out along this feature late Friday afternoon and evening,
though the initiation area has varied a bit run to run. We will
continue slight chance pops for this package for both storms
breaking out along the dryline and the retreating dryline.
An approaching trough may bring some slight chances for storms
across mainly the rolling plains later in the weekend, where
moisture will be more readily available. As the end of the weekend
approaches, we'll be watching the track of this trough, as it could
bring US one more shot at widespread rainfall before upper ridging
builds in next week. This ridging would setup afternoon monsoonal
storms across nm, which always have a chance to meander into our
forecast area; however, if this ridging does develop, high temps
starting mid to late week may need to be raised a few degrees.