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fxus64 klub 201112 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
612 am CDT Tue Aug 20 2019

continued VFR with upper level high pressure overhead. Deeper
moisture and shower/thunder chances expected to remain just west
and north of the area. Low level flow varying at times between
southeast and southwest but remaining mostly 11 knots or less.


Previous discussion... /issued 251 am CDT Tue Aug 20 2019/

for today, there will be lesser chances of convection with most
mid level moisture situated over the Texas Panhandle. The surface
pressure trough will be located well into New Mexico again this
afternoon. However, very warm temperatures will continue with deep
atmospheric mixing. This may again lead to high based convection
favoring the extreme southern Texas Panhandle closest to the mid
level moisture available. Any thunderstorms that do develop will
have the potential to create severe downdraft winds. Thickness
values will drop another 25m or so today cooling off temperatures
another few degrees.

The upper level ridge will become weakly defined at mid levels for
the rest of the week. This will generally translate to lower
temperatures with a relative weakness in the height field aloft. A
steady decrease in temperatures each day will continue though
still above seasonal averages. On Wednesday, a better fetch of mid
level moisture will stream overhead. A notable short wave aloft
will move out of the central rockies accompanied by a weak upper
level jet streak. This short wave will produce a moderate amount
of lift but will be mostly favored from the Texas Panhandle to the
north-northeast. Closer to the South Plains, isolated to scattered
high based thunderstorms can be expected. Thursday will see the
surface pressure trough remain to the west of the region. A cold
front will be moving through the plains which will likely be a
focus for convective development. The potential for afternoon and
evening convection will continue through Saturday favoring the
extreme southern Texas Panhandle and western South Plains. Heights
will begin to build back over the area late in the weekend
squashing convective chances.


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