Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 klub 130933 
afdlub

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
333 am CST Fri Dec 13 2019

Discussion...
northwesterly flow aloft remains in place across the region this
morning with a few areas of cirrus moving southeast over the
western South Plains. At the surface, a light westerly wind
remains in place with a few locations across the rolling plains
seeing a light and variable wind. With dewpoints in the mid 20s
across The Caprock to low 30s across the rolling plains, we should
see another cool start to the day but will warm into the mid to
upper 60s by this afternoon. Surface wind will shift to the
northwest and pick up in speed a bit this afternoon as a weak Lee
surface trough sets up across the forecast area by this afternoon
which may limit the amount of downslope warming a bit.

A weak cold front may try to sneak into the region early Saturday
morning but looks to stall out across the rolling plains by
sunrise. This will result in southeast to easterly flow off The
Caprock and highs in the upper 50s while The Caprock continues
with a south to southwesterly wind and highs closer to the mid to
upper 60s. This front will remain problematic into Sunday now as
the models show that the frontal zone remains stalled along or
just east of The Caprock with an easterly surface wind through the
day Sunday while The Caprock sees a westerly downslope wind.
Models are now struggling with where the frontal boundary will be
located and how strong wind speeds will be west of the front
across The Caprock. Speeds range anywhere from 10 to 15 mph all
the way to 20 to 30 mph depending on what model, when, and where.
For now, will stay on the lower side of wind speeds as flow aloft
will have transitioned through zonal to slight southwesterly
direction by this time and cannot see any strong shortwave
activity that could help mix higher wind speeds down to the
surface.

As we move through Sunday into Monday, a disturbance moving across
The Rockies will help push another surge of cold air southward
reinforcing the front and allowing it to move across the area
shortly after midnight Monday morning. This will result in high
temperatures for the start of the work week ranging from the low
40s across the far southern Texas Panhandle to near 50 in the
southern rolling plains. Any mid-level moisture will remain north
of the region keeping the forecast dry and the cool surface
airmass will take a while to modify resulting in highs slowly
climbing back into the mid to upper 50s by the end of next week.

Jordan

&&

Lub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.
&&

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations