Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus64 klub 150950 
afdlub

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock Texas
350 am CST sun Dec 15 2019

Discussion...
the main weather story for today will be the arrival at some Point
of the cold front followed by a couple of days of temperatures
below normal. At 3 am CST, surface observations and GOES-16
nighttime rgb microphysics imagery show the front stretching
roughly along a Clayton, nm to Allison, Texas line then stretching
into Oklahoma. Forward progress is fairly slow right now but the
front will continue to move southward through the day. By noon,
the high-resolution models have the front just into the northern
part of the South Plains stretching into the central rolling
plains. The final counties to see frontal passage will be the
southwestern South Plains which will occur shortly before
midnight. Timing of arrival of a shortwave currently over the
intermountain west seems to be out of phase with the front to give
it a good kick southward so the lack of dynamic forcing is one
reason for the slow arrival of the front.



This timing means that there will be bit of a window to allow the
northern rolling plains to warm before the front arrives but
highs here will only manage to make it into the 50s before cold
advection and cloud cover stop the warmup. Further south across
the southern South Plains/rolling plains, the question remains how
much temperatures could warm ahead of the front. Wind speeds vary
quite a bit but all models have the wind out of the west which
would provide a bit of downslope warming component. Lack of high
clouds also means there will be plenty of sunshine as well to warm
temperatures so there is a potential that we could see readings
in the low to mid 70s should the front take a slower timing.

Once the front does clear the area, a cold airmass will settle
across the region holding highs around 10 to 15 degrees below
normal. Models try to clear low cloud cover out fairly fast as
drier air filters in to the region but there is a potential for
low clouds to linger into the morning potentially making it a bit
colder than currently forecast. Tuesday morning will be cold as
the surface ridge settles across eastern New Mexico and skies
clear out dropping lows into the teens across the northwestern
South Plains and low 20s elsewhere in the forecast area. Once the
trough axis is east of the area on Tuesday, shortwave ridging will
develop ahead of the next shortwave to arrive late Thursday. Two
minor changes for Thursday that have creeped into the forecast is
a trend upward in wind speeds ahead of the trough Thursday and
pops still below mention but increased into the low teens from
zero. Southerly flow may manage to pull meager low-level moisture
northward and there will be increased mid-level moisture ahead of
the trough. That may be enough to squeeze out some light showers
but not enough to warrant going with mentionable precipitation in
the forecast.

Jordan

&&

Lub watches/warnings/advisories...
none.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations