Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 klwx 221842
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
242 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019
a cold front will cross the area late tonight into Friday, then
move into the Carolinas over the weekend. Canadian high
pressure will build north of the region over the weekend as low
pressure forms off the southeast coast and slides by near or
east of the area Monday into Tuesday.
Near term /through tonight/...
hot and humid conditions exist out there again today ahead of
an approaching cold front and upper level trough. High
temperatures will peak in the low to mid 90s, with heat index
values from the mid 90s to low 100s. This warmth/humidity will
allow for the development of 1000-1500 j/kg of MLCAPE by later this
afternoon, although it will remain largely capped for much of
the afternoon hours.
There is currently ongoing convection across portions of central
and western Virginia which developed off a remnant mesoscale convective system from earlier
this morning. This will progress eastward across portions of
central Virginia over the next several hours. Another focus for
possible convective activity across the region will then be
some upper level energy moving east- northeastward out of
Kentucky/WV early this afternoon, which will cross the region during
the evening hours. Convective allowing models are not in sound
agreement with its evolution, but there is potential for
additional scattered convection during the evening hours,
possibly across the metros. A third focus may then present
itself as the cold front moves southeastward from PA late this
evening, with portions of eastern WV and northern/central Maryland
having the chance at scattered showers/thunderstorms. Given the
MLCAPE mentioned above, in addition to large amounts of dcape
(>1000 j/kg), and 20-30 knots of effective shear, some isolated
severe thunderstorms are possible, with localized damaging winds
likely the greatest threat, but it is a marginal/conditional
Some scattered showers will likely linger overnight across
portions of the region as the front slowly moves southward. Lows
will range through the 60s to low 70s.
Short term /Friday through Saturday night/...
the front will continue its track southward through the day
Friday and likely be nearing the NC/Virginia border by the evening.
However strong southwest flow will remain aloft with upper
level energy traversing the region, so rain showers are likely,
especially across central/western VA, into the mid afternoon
hours. A few thunderstorms with locally heavy rain are possible
as well. Otherwise, mostly cloudy skies and cooler temperatures
are expected. Highs from the upper 70s to around 80f.
Cool and dry air will continue its progression southward into
the region Friday night. Lows will drop into the upper 50s to
A ridge of high pressure will be in control on Saturday with
mostly sunny skies and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows
Saturday night will once again be in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Long term /Sunday through Thursday/...
high pressure will be set up across the northeast on Sunday,
resulting in relatively dry and cooler than average temperatures.
Highs will only reach the upper 70s/low 80s. With a departing upper
low, and onshore low-level flow, can't rule out a shower or some
drizzle on Sunday.
On Monday and Tuesday, the forecast is a bit murky at this point.
Ridging along the eastern Seaboard will lead to the formation of a
stationary front along the East Coast. Meanwhile, a weak wave of low
pressure will be moving out of the Caribbean and up the southeastern
coast Sunday into Monday, resulting in the formation of a surface
low pressure system somewhere along the southeast coast. This is
actually the disturbance that the National Hurricane Center has
outlooked for potential development along the East Coast. Then, it
is all a matter of where this low tracks, and what form the low
takes. The GFS brings the low relatively close the Delmarva
Peninsula, meaning more rain for our eastern zones. Meanwhile, the
Euro keeps the low farther offshore, but still brings a chance for
showers to eastern areas due to onshore surface flow. To sum this
up, there is a lot of uncertainty in this portion of the forecast
until we start to see the pieces fall into place, which just hasn't
happened yet. But depending on how this coastal low develops (still
some uncertainty if it will become tropical/subtropical in nature),
and which direction it moves, the forecast could change drastically
in the coming days. For now, will keep chance pops in the forecast,
with a slight potential for some embedded thunderstorms. Monday and
Tuesday should remain near to slightly below average in terms of
temperatures, with highs in the low 80s.
On Wednesday, showers and thunderstorm chances increase due to an
approaching cold front. This should also push the coastal low off to
the north and east (if it does indeed track up our way). Regardless,
yet another afternoon with showers and storms across the region.
Aviation /18z Thursday through Tuesday/...
mainly VFR is expected through today and tonight. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening. A cold front will then cross the area late tonight
into early Friday with additional chances for showers and
possibly some MVFR stratus. High pressure builds for the
weekend with VFR returning.
VFR conditions expected on Monday. A passing shower or light drizzle
may pass over a terminal, primarily in the vicinity of BWI/mtn/dca,
but shouldn't cause any real issues.
Monday is a bit more tricky, with the potential for a coastal low
riding up the East Coast. For now, thinking it is more likely that
we see primarily VFR conditions. However, if some of the guidance is
correct, we could see a prolonged period of sub-VFR conditions late
Monday into Tuesday. For now, leaning with the drier side of
gusty showers and thunderstorms are possible late today or this
evening and may require smws. Otherwise sub-Small Craft Advisory conditions are
expected through tonight and Friday. Winds will increase out of
the north late Friday and Friday night and Small Craft Advisory conditions are
possible late Friday and Saturday.
A stiff easterly to northeasterly flow along the Chesapeake Bay will
bring US close to Small Craft Advisory criteria on both Sunday and Monday afternoon.
Monday is a little more uncertain, as a coastal low may pass nearby,
which could result in stronger winds. Right now, keeping things
close to Small Craft Advisory criteria.
District of Columbia...none.