Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 klwx 200111 aaa
Area forecast discussion...updated
National Weather Service Baltimore Maryland/Washington District of Columbia
911 PM EDT sun may 19 2019
a cold front will cross the area Monday afternoon. High
pressure will return for the middle of the week.
Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...
One strong thunderstorm is still affecting Winchester and the
eastern WV Panhandle. This is expected to weaken in the next
hour or two. Overnight, still think there will be a risk of
showers or perhaps a thunderstorm across western Maryland and the
Potomac Highlands. Elsewhere, it will likely remain warm and
Short term /6 am Monday morning through Tuesday night/...
Model guidance show westerly downslope winds ahead of front with
little instability. Just expecting an isold shra or tsra with
the front. Perhaps may need an smw for the lower waters.
High pressure will build across the area from central Canada
Tuesday. Believe gusty northwest winds (15-20 kt) will continue
in the morning on the back side of the departing low. The cold
advection will be responsible for highs around 70.
Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/...
a upper level high will build over our region through Saturday. High
pressure at the surface will be in place over the mid-Atlantic and
the southeast US. This set up will lead to a warming trend
throughout next week. As the upper level high remains over our
region, upper level shortwaves will move through the system and
affect our area periodically. There is still a lot of uncertainty on
when and where these disturbances will move through the mid-
Atlantic. The location of the disturbances will all depend on the
overall location of where the upper level high/ridge settles along
the East Coast. The main result of this setup will be the potential
for scattered showers and thunderstorms to form and move through our
region each day.
Aviation /01z Monday through Friday/...
A stray tsra for kmrb this evening, then quiet overnight with no
Isold shra/tsra Mon with fropa. Prob too low for any thunderstorms in the vicinity or
The airmass will be substantially drier Monday night and
Tuesday. Higher confidence VFR will prevail.
VFR conditions are expected for all terminals next week as high
pressure builds into our region. Flight restrictions could be
possible within showers and thunderstorms.
A cold front will cross the waters Monday. Once again, scattered
showers and thunderstorms anticipated to be coincident with the
front. Model soundings suggest deep mixing possible. While some
of this likely tied to showers/thunderstorms, believe there is
enough of a gradient component to issue a Small Craft Advisory
for Monday late morning through afternoon as well.
Winds likely to subside after dark due to the nocturnal
inversion, but the pressure gradient with the related low will
support a new round of mixing on Tuesday. More small craft
conditions possible. Quiet weather expected Wednesday-Thursday.
positive water level departures will linger through tonight. The
wind regime will do nothing to change things through tonight.
If anything, water levels could rise slightly, making for a more
widespread minor flood with high tide early Monday morning. A
cold frontal passage Monday night hopefully will ease this
condition by Tuesday.
District of Columbia...none.
Maryland...coastal flood advisory from 4 am to 11 am EDT Monday for
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 11 am to 6 PM EDT Monday for