Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 klzk 242350
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
650 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019
a line of showers and thunderstorms continues to move north and
extends from near Murfreesboro to Sheridan to near Stuttgart.
These will continue to move north through the next couple of
hours. Patchy fog is expected in the north tonight. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected through the period. VFR and
MVFR conditions are anticipated.
Previous discussion...(issued 227 PM CDT Sat Aug 24 2019)
short term...tonight through Monday
Stationary frontal boundary remains in place across the area today,
north of the I-40 corridor. The mean h500 flow aloft continues
to be interrupted briefly by a ridge to the north of the area, with
troughing on either side. Locally, a zonal to slightly southwesterly
flow will persist for just a bit longer.
An overnight thunderstorm complex brought some locally impressive
rainfall totals across portions of western and northern Arkansas.
Much of that activity has since dissipated, but with some heating
taking place across roughly the southern half of the state,
additional showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop along a
remnant boundary. Expect this activity to persist through sunset.
Temperatures will remain well below normal across northern
Arkansas thanks to the rainfall and abundant cloud cover.
Elsewhere, mid 80s to lower 90s will be seen.
Later tonight through the day Sunday, the flow aloft will amplify as
an h500 trough begins to make progress out of the Southern Plains
and move across the state. An overnight thunderstorm complex will
take a run at the state's western border by Sunday morning with
additional activity possible Sunday afternoon. As the trough
progresses east, precip chances will be confined to mainly eastern
areas on Monday.
In the meantime, severe weather chances appear fairly low with an
isolated strong wind gust not out of the question. Also, similar to
what has been seen the last 48 hours, localized flash flooding will
be a concern. Temperatures will warm up on Monday, with some
locations across southern Arkansas seeing heat indices in the 100-
105 degree range.
Long term...Monday night through Saturday
At the beginning of the period, the remnants of a stalled frontal
boundary will be over Arkansas. By early to mid week, the longwave
pattern will amplify, as low pressure cuts off over the Canadian
prairies and sends a trough down in northwest flow aloft. This will
allow another front to make it into the region around Tuesday. This
front should move across, and eventually stall out and/or wash out.
Upper ridging will amplify over the western conus by the end of the
period, and depending how far east it extends, could send another
frontal boundary toward Arkansas, this time with what could be more
of a cool down.
Highest rain chances through the long term will be with the frontal
boundary on Tuesday. Temperatures will be close to or slightly below
average and largely dependent on cloud cover, position of any
surface boundaries, and any rain that falls.