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fxus64 klzk 151958 
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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
258 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Short term...tonight through Monday
data from local radars indicate scattered mid level
returns across western and northern sections of the forecast
area. Temperatures across the forecast area are currently running
near normal values for mid June.

Conditions across portions of the Southern Plains
are favorable for mesoscale convective system development overnight. Cam type
guidance indicates that some of this activity will approach
western sections of the forecast area late tonight. Forecasts will
continue to reflect this potential.

Unsettled conditions are expected for the rest of this period.
Shortwave energy now across southern Colorado will continue
eastward. A cold front to the northwest of the state will slowly
approach during this period. Moderately unstable conditions will
develop by late Sunday, and with increasingly available moisture,
convective development will become likely. Towards the end of the
period, smaller scale surface boundaries will act to focus
additional convective development. Will need to monitor the
potential for excessive rainfall, especially across western
sections late in the period.

&&

Long term...Monday night through Saturday
upper low pressure will be over southern Missouri and northern
Arkansas Monday night into Tuesday morning. This upper low moves
northeast Tuesday into the Ohio River valley Tuesday night.
Wednesday through Saturday, expect mainly zonal flow. This will keep
weak systems moving through Arkansas.

A stationary front will be just north of Arkansas Monday night
through Thursday. Several impulses will move across this area and
keep rain chances over the region. Another cold front enters the
plains Friday and heads east. Several rounds of showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the period. Heavy rainfall will
be possible in the west. Seven day rainfall totals could top 4 to 6
inches. Temperatures will generally be below normal with warmer
temperatures late in the period approaching normal.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 74 85 68 85 / 30 50 60 60
Camden Arkansas 75 88 70 85 / 10 50 50 70
Harrison Arkansas 69 80 65 80 / 50 60 60 60
Hot Springs Arkansas 74 86 69 83 / 20 50 60 70
Little Rock Arkansas 75 88 70 84 / 20 50 60 60
Monticello Arkansas 75 89 71 86 / 0 60 50 60
Mount Ida Arkansas 73 84 67 82 / 20 50 60 70
Mountain Home Arkansas 70 82 65 82 / 40 60 60 60
Newport Arkansas 74 86 70 84 / 40 60 60 60
Pine Bluff Arkansas 74 88 70 84 / 10 60 60 70
Russellville Arkansas 74 85 69 84 / 30 60 60 60
Searcy Arkansas 74 87 69 86 / 30 50 60 60
Stuttgart Arkansas 74 88 71 84 / 10 50 60 60
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.

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