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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock Arkansas
408 am CDT Fri Aug 23 2019

Short term...today through Saturday night

It's been a rainy night/early morning for the natural state which
has resulted in portions of the state receiving around 1 to 3 inches
of rain with locally higher amounts close to 4 inches. Latest
surface observations show temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s
across much of the state, with the far southern regions of the state
remaining in the upper 70s. The variance in temperatures is likely
due to ongoing convection resulting in cooler temperatures for the
majority of the state. Likewise and to be expected, relative
humidity values are rather high with much of the state seeing
percentages in the 90s.

Today we will likely see chances for rain continue as a frontal
boundary remains draped near the northern portions of the state.
This will provide a focus for additional convection throughout the
day, with scattered showers and thunderstorms becoming more
widespread through the afternoon hours due to diurnal influences and
lingering outflow boundaries from the overnight/early morning
storms. This, along with partly to mostly cloudy skies, should
result in afternoon high temperatures in the upper 70s across the
north, mid to upper 80s across central Arkansas, and lower 90s
across the south.

While widespread severe weather is not anticipated today, we could
see some strong thunderstorms, especially this afternoon and
evening. The main hazard however, will likely be the threat for
isolated areas of localized flash flooding. As mentioned above, a
frontal boundary across portions of northern Arkansas could result
in persistent rainfall. Much of the activity should be scattered with
widespread rainfall amounts around an inch or less. It is Worth
mentioning however, that some model guidance, especially the
convective allowing models, hints at the possibility of locally
higher amounts of rainfall near two or three inches across northern
portions of the state. Additionally, forecast precipitable water values above two
inches across the northwest could result in more efficient rainfall
producers, so this will be an area to monitor throughout the day.

The aforementioned frontal boundary will likely remain stationary
across northern portions of the state through Saturday morning,
moving further south late in the period when a shortwave trough
pushes eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley region. This will
result in additional chances for rain on Saturday, with cool high
temperatures once again. Expect Max temperatures to range from the
upper 70s across the north to lower 90s across the south. Lows will
generally stay in the upper 60s to lower 70s through the weekend.

&&

Long term...Sunday through Wednesday night

Fairly active long term is on tap with plenty of rain chances in the
forecast. Long term begins with a nearly stationary front draped
across the state which will lift back to the north. Aloft a ridge of
high pressure will be across the western Continental U.S. And keep the state in
northwesterly flow. Models are generally in good agreement that a
new cold front will push into the state on Tuesday before becoming
parallel to the upper flow and stalling. By the end of the long
term, the models begin to diverge and at this point will tend to
lean towards the GFS and keep a bit of the wetter forecast.

With continued rain chances and significant cloud cover in the
forecast, temperatures through the long term will remain below
average.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Batesville Arkansas 82 69 81 67 / 60 40 40 40
Camden Arkansas 91 73 89 74 / 50 40 50 40
Harrison Arkansas 78 67 78 66 / 60 40 50 30
Hot Springs Arkansas 89 72 85 72 / 50 40 50 40
Little Rock Arkansas 88 72 85 72 / 60 40 50 40
Monticello Arkansas 90 72 88 73 / 50 40 50 40
Mount Ida Arkansas 87 71 84 70 / 50 40 50 30
Mountain Home Arkansas 80 68 79 66 / 60 40 50 30
Newport Arkansas 84 70 82 68 / 50 40 40 30
Pine Bluff Arkansas 89 71 87 72 / 50 40 50 40
Russellville Arkansas 84 71 84 71 / 60 40 50 40
Searcy Arkansas 85 71 84 69 / 60 40 50 40
Stuttgart Arkansas 87 71 84 71 / 50 40 50 40
&&

Lzk watches/warnings/advisories...none.
&&

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