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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
615 am CDT sun Sep 15 2019



Aviation...
12z taf issuance...

No aviation concerns the next 24 hours, VFR conditions will
prevail at all terminals. Southeast winds will increase to near 10-12kt
sustained by this afternoon with gusts to 18-20kt.

&&

Previous discussion... /issued 345 am CDT sun Sep 15 2019/

Discussion...

Not much change to the current forecast. WV imagery shows the upper-
lvl ridge that has covered the srn Continental U.S. The past couple of days has
shifted east, courtesy of a trough over Arizona/nm, which has resulted in
widespread convection there. This was an inverted trough 24 hrs
ago, but is forecast to get absorbed in SW flow aloft later today
and eject NE. As such, isolated convection cannot be ruled out in
the far west/northwest for the next couple of days.

Farther north, a closed upper trough off the coast of b.C. Is
forecast to open and make landfall on the West Coast by around 18z
Monday, before ejecting NE into the upper Midwest by midweek. This
will keep SW flow aloft over West Texas and southeast New Mexico and
increase chances of convection a little farther into the County Warning Area Tue as
it passes thru the region.

A stronger, secondary trough will follow the first, making landfall
in Washington/or by 18z Wed. This feature is forecast to dig down thru
nocal by 18z Thu before also ejecting into the upper Midwest over
the weekend. By midweek, the SW to NE-oriented low level Theta-E
ridge is forecast to re-establish over West Texas/southeast nm, and will
result in increasing chances of convection thru Friday, when the
secondary trough passes thru the region. Friday looks to be the
best chance for convection area-wide, but long-term models are not
in real good agreement by this time on speed/placement of the trough.

For temperatures, not much change as thicknesses remain rather
constant through the week. Temperatures will continue above-normal,
but not at all excessive.

&&

Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 92 68 93 70 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 89 67 91 67 / 0 10 10 10
Dryden 94 70 95 71 / 0 0 0 10
Fort Stockton 90 66 90 67 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 80 63 82 64 / 10 10 10 10
Hobbs 87 64 89 65 / 0 0 0 10
Marfa 84 58 85 59 / 0 0 10 0
Midland Intl Airport 92 67 92 69 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 92 68 92 69 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 93 67 93 69 / 0 0 0 0

&&

Maf watches/warnings/advisories...
nm...none.
Texas...none.
&&

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