Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmaf 221131
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa Texas
531 am CST Fri Nov 22 2019
12z taf issuance...
The main aviation concern for the next 24 hours is low cigs
affecting terminals this morning. Low clouds had initially
dissipated overnight but over the last couple of hours, stratus
had started to move back in. Currently, flight conditions range
from LIFR at hob to MVFR at cnm/ink and VFR elsewhere. Clouds will
continue to fill in with IFR conditions expected at maf by 12z.
For now, think peq and fst may remain on the edge of the low cloud
deck so leave mention out attm. Will continue to monitor
conditions and amend if needed. VFR conditions will return to all
site this afternoon. Otherwise, winds will somewhat light and
variable through the taf period.
Previous discussion... /issued 345 am CST Fri Nov 22 2019/
Latest sfc obs/mesoanalysis places the cold front in The Big Bend
area, in the wake of an upper trough over the MS valley. Convection
along/behind the front has been diminishing over the past several
hours, and should not bleed over into the 1st period. Instead, a
stratus deck should bank up against the mtns for at least today,
socking The Lowlands in and yielding temps lower than what most
models are calling for.
Fortunately, this looks to be short-lived, as weak return flow
resumes after 00z Sat, and stratus scatters out. Northwest flow
aloft then develops over West Texas and southeast New Mexico,
allowing for a warmup back to unseasonably warm temperatures in the
70s most locations sun/Mon.
Tue, a fast-moving trough will move thru the region, dropping a cold
front into the area and taking temps closer to normal Tue afternoon.
Upstream of this trough, a massive secondary trough is forecast to
develop over the pacnw and amplify down the West Coast, putting West
Texas and southeast New Mexico under progressive SW flow aloft.
Upslope easterly flow at the sfc and shortwaves moving up in SW flow
aloft will increase chances of rain beginning Tue night west, and
developing east Wed, which may be the coldest day this forecast
besides today. Temps should warm back to normal or better by
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Big Spring 49 37 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
Carlsbad 53 37 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
Dryden 65 45 73 47 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Stockton 57 41 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
Guadalupe Pass 48 38 56 38 / 0 0 0 0
Hobbs 49 36 63 36 / 10 0 0 0
Marfa 58 36 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
Midland Intl Airport 52 38 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
Odessa 52 38 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
Wink 55 36 67 38 / 0 0 0 0