Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 051131
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
531 am CST Thu Dec 5 2019
see the 12z aviation discussion.
Previous discussion... /issued 244 am CST Thu Dec 5 2019/
high pressure remains over the mid-south this morning. The high
will shift east today. Abundant cirrus clouds are already
streaming into the area ahead of a developing low pressure system
located over the Texas Panhandle. Clouds will continue to increase
through the day. A few locations may be lucky enough to see some
peaks of sunshine this morning before the clouds become dense
enough to block the sun. Enjoy it as the mid-south will be socked
in with cloud cover through at least the early part of next week.
A warm front will lift across the area late this afternoon which
may allow a few showers to develop across portions of northeast
Arkansas. Have added 20 probability of precipitation. Temperatures will be mild with highs
ranging from around 60 degrees to the mid 60s.
Rain will increase by late tonight into Friday as the surface low
tracks from the Red River valley to central Mississippi. A few
thunderstorms will be possible along and south of I-40 late
tonight into Friday morning. Winds will turn around to the north
on the backside of the low which will keep lingering drizzle
across the area during the afternoon hours on Friday.
The drizzle will continue into Friday night and possibly even
through the early afternoon hours on Saturday as low level
moisture becomes trapped. Highs will be near normal with readings
in the 50s.
The drizzle should abruptly come to an end by late Saturday
afternoon as winds begin to switch around to the southeast.
However, clouds will remain over the area. The break in
precipitation will be short-lived as warm air advection showers
will begin to occur across northeast Mississippi and areas of west
Tennessee near the Tennessee River late Saturday night. The
coverage will spread across areas east of the Mississippi River on
By Sunday night into Monday, chances for showers will increase
across the entire mid-south as a cold front approaches the area.
Models differ slightly on timing with the European model (ecmwf) and Canadian being
a tad slower. The two models also slow the fronts progression
southward once the front moves into north Mississippi which could
linger chances for rain into Tuesday. However, best chances will
likely occur Monday and Monday night. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms may also occur along the front as well. Temperatures
will be mild on Monday with highs in the lower to mid 60s.
Much colder air will filter into the area behind the front as
Arctic high pressure will begin to build into the region. Highs
will be in the 40s for much of next week. Clearing should finally
take place by late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Thus, the entire
County Warning Area should finally see the sun again on Wednesday.
Mid/high clouds will gradually lower throughout the day with
ceilings around 10-12 kft by 00z. Dry weather will persist
through the evening, but rain showers will increase late tonight
from west to east with an isolated thunderstorm possible late.
Rain will continue to move across the mid-south Friday morning
with ceilings falling to low MVFR or even IFR, but this will
affect most sites after 12z. South winds under 10 kts will
persist through this evening, becoming more southeasterly