Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 121739
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1139 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019
the Arctic air is firmly in place across the mid-south this
morning with temperatures in the 20s across the County Warning Area. There was
just enough instability this morning to support the development of
some strato cu bands which dropped narrow swaths of light snow in
some areas, including downtown Memphis. These snow bands developed
downwind of warmer bodies of water Akin to how lake effect bands
form in the great lakes; however, on a much smaller scale. This
snow produced a very light dusting (at most) but has come to an
end. We anticipate mostly sunny conditions the remainder of the
afternoon, but temperatures will struggle to reach the freezing
mark and gusty north winds will keep wind chill readings in the
teens and 20s. Record cold is anticipated tonight with
temperatures falling into the teens.
Previous discussion... /issued 426 am CST Tue Nov 12 2019/
Current radar imagery shows winter precipitation finally out of
the area with reports of lake effect snow in northwest Tennessee.
Temperatures have dropped significantly and will continue to drop
to into the lower teens in our northern counties. Wind chill
values are already reaching single digits in many areas and are
expected to continue through the rest of the morning. With these
low temperatures, wind chills and gusts expect a bitter cold
morning commute. Record cold temperatures are likely today,
generally reaching the upper 20s across the area, with wind chill
values reaching the 20s throughout the day.
Winds will start to decrease by tonight with clearing skies
allowing for strong radiational cooling. This will allow
temperatures to dip into the upper teens and lower 20s Wednesday
morning, likely breaking low temperature records. Temperatures
will start to climb throughout the remainder of the week with a
reinforcing cold front expected to approach the area Thursday.
Models show little to no precipitation with this front.
Temperatures Thursday will be in the upper to mid 40s, with lower
temperatures in our northern counties.
As the mid-level trough associated with the reinforcing cold
front moves through, a closed low aloft will form just east of
our area and move towards the coast. Thus, moving a ridge over our
area through the weekend and promoting dry weather. High
temperatures this weekend will be in the 50s. Another trough will
move east from the plains Monday, but looks to be dry with the
latest model solutions so left out the mention of precipitation.
Below is a table consisting of our climate sites, the forecasted
high today, and the record low maximum temperature with the year
18z taf set
VFR conditions will continue over the next 24 hours. Gusty
northerly winds will begin to diminish by 23z, but will remain
around 10 kts at kmem, kmkl, and ktup through 04-06z. Thereafter,
winds will become light and variable. Winds will then begin to
turn around to the southeast around 6-7 kts at 17-18z.