Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 152323
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
623 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019
Updated for the 00z aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 344 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019/
What a difference 24 hours makes. Muggy conditions have quickly returned
to the mid-south. Temperatures across the forecast area range
from the mid to upper 80s with heat indices in the low to mid 90s.
A few showers have snuck under the capping inversion this
afternoon, mostly fed by the warm air advection pattern. Expect shower activity
to be isolated through early evening, with mostly dry conditions
Father's day is a bit of a wild card even though it's less than 24
hours away. Split flow over the region will allow a couple of
shortwaves to move through the mid-south tomorrow afternoon and
evening. The timing and strength of the waves is still in
question, as cams are struggling to resolve them. Nonetheless,
thunderstorms are expected to pop up by late morning and become
more widespread by the afternoon hours. Cams suggest some loosely
organized storms with MLCAPE values around 2500 j/kg paired with
20 kts of shear aloft. The main forcing mechanism will likely be
outflow boundaries from decaying overnight convection to our west
and/or an mesoscale convective vortex that moves into our the area. Confidence is low on
location of organized storms tomorrow as cams differ considerably.
Hopefully the models can get into better agreement between now
and tomorrow morning.
Broad split flow will be the story Monday through late next week.
This will allow multiple shortwaves to pivot through the area and
also keep clouds and thunderstorms in the forecast each day. The
ridge never effectively builds into the region, suggesting that
the mesoscale will dominate this period. The general theme will be
increasing heat, medium to high pops each day, and plenty of
rainfall. Stay tuned.
00z taf cycle
VFR conditions will continue for much of the forecast period. A
few light showers are moving across northern sections of the mid-
south at this time. More showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop on Sunday. Winds will be mainly from the south at 5 to 10
knots tonight and then shift to the southwest at increase to
10 to 15 knots with higher gusts.