Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 kmeg 200454
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Memphis Tennessee
1154 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019
Updated for the 06z aviation discussion
Previous discussion... /issued 942 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019/
Some deeper moisture associated with the remnants of Imelda is
working north through the Delta Region this evening. Most of the
shower and thunderstorm activity has died down but small chances
will continue overnight. Expect lows in the upper 60s east to
lower 70s in the Delta. Forecast on track.
Previous discussion... /issued 246 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2019/
A few showers were popping up across western portions of the
midsouth this hour...with no lightning as of yet. Temperatures
ranged from the mid 80s in the east where a blanket of
stratocumulus rolled in this morning...to the mid 90s in the west.
Winds were mainly southeast at 5 to 15 mph. Using area radars to
watch activity as nqa is down for the count.
For tonight and Friday...short term model solutions are in good
agreement that the remnants of tropical storm Imelda will shift
north and shear-out as it enters the westerlies. Thus rain chances
for tonight and tomorrow will be confined to isolated coverage and
across the western counties. Cloud cover though will spread across
a larger portion of the region. Tonight's lows will fall to near
70f with cooler highs tomorrow compared to previous days...in the
mid and upper 80s. Though these readings are still above normal.
Saturday and Sunday...high pressure will dominate most of this
period over the midsouth to mid-Atlantic states. The flow
throughout the column will slowly strengthen from the south with
the approach of a cold front and associated shortwave late Sunday.
Rain chances will hold off until Sunday afternoon across the far
north...with a gradual spread to the southeast Sunday night.
Perhaps the best chance for measurable rain will be north of I-40
after midnight. Highs both days will mainly be in the upper 80s
to low 90s. Lows will fall into the mid 60s to low 70s.
Monday through Thursday...the aforementioned front will trigger
convection on Monday as it passes through but believe coverage
will remain isolated. Temperature highs will fall into the low to
mid 80s...likely the coolest day of the period. For Tuesday and
beyond have taken a model blend between the wetter GFS and drier
Euro/Canadian. Upper heights will build back over the area causing
questions of shower/T-storm coverage. So didn't go so bullish
each day like the GFS was suggesting...but didn't go completely
dry either. Highs though will climb back to the upper 80s and low
90s with afternoon heat indices a few degrees warmer. Fortunately
we are not looking at triple digits or record breakers...but
highs will still run nearly ten degrees above normal for what
will be the start of the official fall season.
06z taf cycle
VFR conditions are expected to continue for most of the forecast
period. Some low clouds are expected to move into mainly northern
sections of the mid-south Friday morning. Some scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to form over western sections of
the region mainly west of the Mississippi River on Friday. Winds
will be mainly from the south at around 5 knots overnight before
increasing to 5 to 10 knots on Friday.