Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmfl 170838
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Miami Florida
338 am EST sun Nov 17 2019
Short term...(today-tonight): a low pressure system off the
Atlantic Seaboard is slowly migrating east and dragging a cold
front boundary through the east Bahamas. Cool air advection behind
the front continues today across soflo, with afternoon highs
remaining in the low to mid 70s. Nighttime lows will drop into the
the low to mid 50s interior, and mid 50s to around 60 over the
Broad subsidence and a drier air mass will ensure continuing
benign weather conditions with pops remaining near zero through
the short term. A stray shower or two could form over the Gulf and
Atlantic waters today, but anything that forms should be brief.
Northerly cool air advection winds continues today with wind
speeds fluctuating from light and variable to hovering around 10
Monday through Wednesday...
As the strengthening low pressure off the Carolina coast pushes
further away from the region on Monday, a weakening the pressure
gradient will allow surface winds to relax. Aloft, a mid to upper
level trough will then amplify over the eastern Continental U.S. And swiftly
push another cold front across South Florida on Tuesday.
Ultimately, the boundary will be drier than our previous front and
reinforce cooler temperatures through mid-week as winds look to
remain out of the north to northwest. However, have nudged pops up
a bit as a few showers may be possible, but kept highest chances
over the warmer Gulf waters where instability will be greatest.
As mentioned, temperatures will continue to remain near to below
average through at least Wednesday. This means mid to upper 70s
during the day, with low 60s along the Atlantic coast and 50s
Wednesday night through Saturday...
High pressure then builds across the area behind the boundary
late Wednesday and continues sliding into the western Atlantic
through late week. This will aid in veering winds out of the
northeast then east. The addition of an easterly component to the
flow will modify the airmass and induce a gradual warming trend
back above 80 during the day. With more zonal flow aloft, South
Florida should remain dry into the weekend.
Thereafter, global models hint at the arrival of another frontal
boundary just beyond the period. While both the GFS and European model (ecmwf)
show some moisture return and rain chances increasing, there is
no surprise with differences in timing and intensity. Will
monitor with each model iteration and access upcoming trends.
North to northwest winds continue through tonight, decreasing to
around 10 knots. The Atlantic seas will quickly build to 5 to 7
feet today, and reaching 8 to 11 feet by tonight as a swell
arrives from the north. Hazardous boating conditions will likely
continue through Tuesday morning when the swell gradually
VFR conditions continue through the next 24 hours, except for
some brief periods of MVFR cigs at fxe and apf during the early
morning hours. Mainly northwest winds will prevail at the terminals
around 10 kt today. Otherwise, expect light and variable flow.&&
There will be a building northeast swell today and by tonight
reach 7 to 9 feet, occasionally up to 10 feet in the Palm Beach
County waters. The models continue to show possible breakers of 7
feet late tonight into Monday for the beaches of Palm Beach
County. If these trends continue in later forecast, then a high
surf advisory may be needed for the beaches of Palm Beach County
late tonight or Monday morning.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
West Palm Beach 73 58 75 60 / 0 0 0 0
Fort Lauderdale 74 60 76 64 / 0 0 0 0
Miami 75 60 77 63 / 0 0 0 0
Naples 72 57 75 61 / 0 0 0 20
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST Tuesday for amz650-651-670-