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FXUS62 KMFL 140803

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
403 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.Short Term...

Today through Tuesday...

Weak low-mid level ridging will remain in control through early 
this week. At the surface, light onshore flow will be dictated by 
a high pressure centered to our northeast and a stationary 
boundary draped over the Southeast CONUS in the 06Z WPC surface 
analysis. A modest moisture gradient is noted on satellite derived
PWATs to our north, between a tropical airmass and a narrow 
corridor of modified continental air. This signifies sufficient 
moisture (PWATS approx 1.6-1.7 inches) remains in place over 
South Florida and the allow for the possible development of a few
showers this afternoon. Given the lighter easterly flow, coverage
is mainly expected over the interior and west coast, where both 
sea breeze boundaries collide.

Tuesday looks to be a bit drier than today as the lower PWAT air  
rounds the eastern periphery of the mid-level ridge over the Gulf 
of Mexico and spreads across the area. Temperatures should remain 
on the warm side with afternoon highs in the mid 80s for the 
eastern portions of South Florida, and upper 80s to low 90s across
the interior and Gulf coast. 

.Long Term...

Wednesday through Sunday... 

The aforementioned stationary boundary will begin to gradually 
nudge it's way southward by mid to late week as ridging aloft 
gets pushed southeastward from a digging shortwave trough. Ahead 
of the approaching boundary, winds will begin to veer out of the 
south then southwest as surface high pressure also retreats 
further into the Atlantic. The more southerly component in the 
prevailing flow will allow tropical moisture to trickle back in 
across the region but still remain relatively dry enough aloft, 
keeping a slight chance to chance of PoPs in the forecast. 
Likewise, southwesterly flow could allow for some patchy fog to 
develop over the interior areas in the early morning hours on 

Both the GFS and ECMWF depict the frontal boundary stalling along
the southern tip of South Florida around Friday and then washing 
out over the Florida Straights late this weekend. Also during 
this time, both models depict a deepening low over the Gulf of 
Mexico, as a result of the shortwave trough traversing across the 
Gulf Coast. Currently, the ECMWF is the faster and more robust 
solution, with the low crossing northern Florida. While the GFS 
keeps the low weaker and further to our west. Regardless, moisture
should return through the atmospheric column over the weekend, 
along with increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage late this 
week into the weekend. The finer details will continue to be
monitored with each model run. 



Easterly winds will gradually diminish to around 10 knots or less
early this week before becoming more southerly to southwesterly 
by the middle of the week. 

Northeasterly swells in the Atlantic waters will also slowly 
continue decreasing and be fully dissipated by middle of this 
week. Therefore, the SCA will be allowed to expire early this 
morning for the Atlantic waters off Palm Beach County, with a SCEC
thereafter for all of the Atlantic waters. Gulf waters should
remain below 2 feet. 



VFR should prevail at all terminals during the next 24 hours with
high pressure well in control of the area. Light winds will 
become mainly ESE this afternoon at around 10kt, then becoming 
light again tonight.


.Beach Forecast...

The High Risk of Rip Currents continues for all Atlantic beaches 
through at least tonight, due to the enhanced northeast swell, 
along with the modest easterly winds. While trending downward, 
tides are still running about 1 to 1.5 feet above the normal high 
tides and should continue through at least this afternoon. 
Flooding is still possible along coastal roadways and inlets along
the east coast metro areas and thus, the Coastal Flood Advisory 
remains in effect through this afternoon.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
West Palm Beach  85  73  85  73 /  10  10  10   0 
Fort Lauderdale  85  76  85  76 /  20  10  10   0 
Miami            86  75  86  74 /  20  10  10   0 
Naples           88  72  88  74 /  30  30  10   0 


FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ650-670.



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