Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 162226
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
626 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019
Hurricane Humberto is forecast to move east-northeast well
southeast of the area the next several days. Although no direct
impacts are expected with Humberto, rough marine conditions and
strong rip currents are expected this week. A cold front will
cross the area Tuesday followed by strong high pressure building
in from the north and northeast though the end of the week
bringing the first touch of Fall weather to the area.
Near term /until 6 am Tuesday morning/...
as of 625 PM Monday...high pressure will remain over the area
tonight. Daytime fair weather cumulus clouds will dissipate with
loss of heating this evening, leaving mostly clear skies with
outflow cirrus from Humberto prevailing into the late night
hours, especially along the coast. After midnight, conditions
will once again become favorable for low stratus clouds,
High-resolution models continue to show little in the way of
precipitation in the near term and will continue to leave the
forecast dry. Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s
over most land areas with mid 70s Outer Banks.
Short term /6 am Tuesday morning through 6 PM Tuesday/...
as of 330 PM Tuesday...Tuesday should be the last really warm
and humid day for a few days. Morning stratus and patchy fog may
again be stubborn to dissipate until late morning, but once it
does, should lead to mostly sunny skies with only scattered
fair-weather cumulus. The 3 km NAM and WRF indicate minimal
precipitation coverage once again, and will keep the forecast
dry. High temperatures should be in the mid/upper 80s with
lower 80s Outer Banks.
Long term /Tuesday night through Monday/...
as of 330 PM Mon...tc Humberto will bring indirect coastal
impacts to east NC through the end of the week, though high
pressure will build in bringing pleasant sensible weather to the
region with below climo temps for a change. By the weekend the
upper ridge will shift directly over the eastern Seaboard with
longwave troughing setting up over the Central Plains, and temps
moderating back to near normal.
Wednesday through Friday...strong high pressure builds in from
the north through the end of the week while Humberto continues
to track east-northeast across the western Atlantic with unusually strong
cold air advection behind the backdoor front. Tight pressure gradient between
these systems will bring breezy northeast winds and a cooler and
drier airmass that will give US a first hint of fall. Windiest
conditions are expected on the obx where gusts of 35-45 mph are
expected. Will have to watch for beach erosion and perhaps some
minor coastal flood issues for prone areas of the obx due to the
prolonged gusty NE winds and high surf - see The Tides and
coastal flooding section for more info.Highs expected in the 70s
area wide. Lows drop into the low/mid 50s interior zones to the
low/mid 60s on the beaches.
Saturday...nerly gradient begin to relax by Sat as the high
becomes centered over the area bringing lighter winds and a
moderating airmass with dry conditions continuing across the
region. High temps moderate back to near climo in the low 80s,
though with the continued very dry airmass (tds in the 50s),
lows will still be cool in the 50s inland to 60s beaches.
Sunday through Monday...return swrly flow continue to moderate
temps back to climo and above, with highs in the mid 80s
possible by sun or Mon, and lows moderating back into the 60s.
It will continue to be dry however with upr ridge holding strong
over the southeast Continental U.S..
Aviation /22z Monday through Saturday/...
short term /through Tuesday/...
as of 625 PM Monday...shallow diurnal cumulus clouds will
dissipate after sunset with outflow cirrus prevailing overnight.
With little change in the temperature and moisture profiles
over the last few days, we are once again expecting a period of
LIFR/IFR stratus clouds after midnight along with patches of
fog. Think the sub VFR conditions will improve to VFR by mid
morning with better mixing anticipated. Could see isolated
showers or storms develop late in the afternoon as a back door
cold front passes through with better chances for this activity
expected west of the taf sites.
Long term /Tue night through Sat/...
as of 330 PM Mon...strong high pressure builds in late Tue
through the end of the week with Humberto passing well offshore
bringing tightening pressure gradients and gusty north to
northeast winds, mainly during the day when mixing is maximized.
Otherwise, good flying conditions with mainly sunny skies and
lower humidities and continued breezes resulting in fog free
short term /tonight and Tuesday/...
as of 625 PM Monday...no changes to previous thinking. Marine
conditions will continue to slowly deteriorate as increased southeast
swells from distant Hurricane Humberto arrive on our southern
coast and work north tonight and Tuesday. Already picking up 6
foot seas and gusts to 25 knots at the buoy 30 miles southeast
of New River Inlet. While the seas increase tonight, the winds
should really ramp up on Tuesday, as the gradient between
Humberto and strong high pressure to the north increases. Gusts
to 30 knots are likely in the Small Craft Advisory areas by Tuesday afternoon.
Long term /Tue night through Sat/...
as of 330 PM Mon...Small Craft Advisory conditions expected through much of the
long term with gusty nerly winds, dangerously large seas as
combined swells from tc Humberto and pressure gradient between
building high pressure and Humberto well offshore impact the
NE winds continue to strengthen Tue evening and continue through
Wed into Thu. Solid Small Craft Advisory winds in the 20-30 kt range with ocnl
gusts to 35 kt expected through thur, then gradient lesses by
Thu night into Fri with winds decrease to the 10-20 kt range.
Swell from Humberto will peak around 12-14 ft Wednesday night
into Thursday, then begin to slowly subside on Friday, though
remain above 6 ft into at least the first half of the weekend.
as of 330 PM Mon...longer period swells from tc Humberto will
lead to a high threat of rip currents this week. In addition to
the swells, strong NE winds will develop Tue night into Thu as
strong high pres builds in from the NE. These winds combined
with the swells will produce large seas likely aoa 10 feet over
portions of the coastal wtrs. High surf and ocean overwash are
expected in vulnerable locations especially around the times of
NC...beach hazards statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for ncz195-
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 11 PM EDT Thursday
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 2 am EDT Friday for
Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Sunday for amz154-156-158.
Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 am EDT Sunday for
Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Sunday for amz152.