Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 231947
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
347 PM EDT Tue Jul 23 2019
a cold front will slowly cross the area tonight and move offshore early
Wednesday. High pressure will build in from the north for the rest of
the work week into the weekend.
Near term /until 6 am Wednesday morning/...
as of 325 PM Tuesday...convection becoming more active,
especially in areas to the west and north of the mhx County Warning Area at
mid-afternoon as a strong cold front drops slowly south across
the region. The front currently extends from Norfolk to Rocky
Mount and will work its way offshore by early in the morning.
Ahead of the front in the moist unstable airmass, strong to
severe thunderstorms are developing and should move into our
northern and western counties through about 21z. Most all of the
high-resolution models shows the convection weakening as it
moves east to the Highway 17 corridor during the early evening
hours. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for the western
tier of counties until 02z and a Flood Watch remains in effect
for Martin, Greene, Pitt and Lenoir counties through 03z for 1-3
inches of rain, which could produce some localized flooding of
low-lying areas. Behind the front, some welcome cooler air
arrives toward morning with lows in the mid 60s inland to 70-73
Short term /6 am Wednesday morning through 6 PM Wednesday/...
as of 330 PM Tuesday...the frontal boundary may linger just
offshore on Wednesday before slowly moving away. Will keep small
pops over the southern tier through much of the day on Wednesday
with no pops inland. Dewpoints should fall into the mid/upper
60s over much of the area, a nice relief from the recent heat
wave. Highs will also be in the more comfortable low/mid 80s
Long term /Wednesday night through Tuesday/...
as of 345 am Tuesday...more pleasant temps and dry high
pressure expected mid week through early next week.
Wednesday night...lows Wed night in the 60s interior to low/mid
Thursday...the upper trough shifts farther east into the New
England states with the front far enough offshore that much of
eastern NC should be dry. Maintained just a slight chance of
showers along the immediate coast given uncertainty with where
the front resides off the coast and weak vorticity moving through
the base of the upper trough lifting away from the region.
Interior/coastal plain should remain dry as high pressure begins
to ridge in from the northwest. Max temperatures will be slightly
below climatology for late July, mid/upper 80s inland with low
80s along the obx. Cooler overnight lows ranging from mid 60s
inland to low/mid 70s beaches.
Friday through Monday...weak longwave troughing present for the
eastern conus, with light northeasterly flow will mean near to
slightly below climo temps, as well as dry conditions. High
temps mainly in the 85-90 degree range with lows in the 60s
inland to low 70s coast.
Aviation /19z Tuesday through Sunday/...
short term /through Wednesday/...
as of 140 PM Tue...scattered showers and thunderstorms are
beginning to show up on radar ahead of the main line of storms,
leading to chance for periods of sub VFR. As a cold front
approaches later this afternoon, a line of storms will move northwest
to southeast through the area. A few of the storms could be strong to
severe with strong winds and heavy downpours. In the wake of the
front, winds will shift to the north and guidance continues to
support MVFR/IFR conditions overnight.
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
as of 330 am Tuesday...aviation conditions improve to mainly
VFR by Thursday as NE winds and drier conditions prevail across
the taf sites.
short term /tonight and Wednesday/...
as of 340 PM Tuesday...latest observations showing winds
trending up on the coastal waters and sounds with gusts to 28
knots at Duck and 31 knots on the Pamlico Sound. Small craft
advisories will remain in effect for all area waters through
late this evening, except into early Wednesday morning on the
coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as seas gradually subside.
Most of the high-res guidance shows winds dropping off fairly
quickly after midnight as the cold front moves offshore and
slows down. The front will move away from the coast slowly on
Wednesday with north/northwest winds 10-15 knots and seas subsiding to 2-4
Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/...
as of 415 am Tuesday...winds become NE 10-20 knots Thursday
through Friday night, diminishing to 5-15 kt through the weekend
as high pressure builds across the waters from the north and
northwest. May see occasional showers for the southern waters
Wednesday into Thursday with front just to the south.
NC...beach hazards statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for ncz195-
Flood Watch until 11 PM EDT this evening for ncz029-044-079-
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for amz131-
Small Craft Advisory until 5 am EDT Wednesday for amz152-154-