Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 171405
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1005 am EDT Tue Sep 17 2019
Hurricane Humberto is forecast to move east-northeast well
southeast of the area the next several days. Although no direct
impacts are expected with Humberto, rough marine conditions and
strong rip currents are expected this week. A cold front will
cross the area today followed by strong high pressure building
in from the north and northeast though the end of the week
bringing the first touch of Fall weather to the area.
Near term /today/...
as of 1005 am Tue...no significant changes needed to previous
forecast for update this morning, with skies becoming mostly
sunny to partly cloudy. Fog and stratus continues to lift this
morning. Very ill defined cold front expected to cross the area
later today. With dominant NE flow already in place really wont
be any convergence assoc with front and with lack of moisture
and forcing will keep fcst dry. Warm today with highs ranging
from near 80 NE coast to mid/upr 80s SW.
Short term /tonight/...
as of 230 am Tue...strong high pres building in from the north
combined with tc Humberto well to the southeast will lead to gusty NE
winds along the CST. Much drier air will spread in with dewpts
dropping into the upr 50 and lower 60s most spots. Under pc to
mclr skies expect comfortable lows around 60 northwest to upr 60s/lower
70s central/srn beaches.
Long term /Wednesday through Monday/...
as of 300 am Tue...tc Humberto will bring indirect coastal
impacts to east NC through the end of the week, though high
pressure will build in bringing pleasant sensible weather to the
region with below climo temps for a change. By the weekend the
upper ridge will shift directly over the eastern Seaboard with
longwave troughing setting up over the Central Plains, and temps
moderating back to near normal.
Wednesday through Friday...strong high pressure builds in from
the north through the end of the week while Humberto continues
to track east-northeast across the western Atlantic with unusually strong
cold air advection behind the backdoor front. Tight pressure gradient between
these systems will bring breezy northeast winds and a cooler and
drier airmass that will give US a first hint of fall. Windiest
conditions will be seen on the obx where gusts of 35-45 mph are
expected. Beach erosion and coastal overwash in the more
susceptible areas appear increasingly likely with this event -
see The Tides and coastal flooding section for more info. With
a decent advection regime favored highs on the cooler side of
guidance, resulting in a forecast of 70s area wide. Lows drop
into the low/mid 50s interior zones to the low/mid 60s on the
Saturday...nerly gradient begin to relax by Sat as the high
becomes centered over the area bringing lighter winds and a
moderating airmass with dry conditions continuing across the
region. High temps moderate back to near climo in the low 80s,
though with the continued very dry airmass (tds in the 50s),
lows will still be cool in the 50s inland to 60s beaches. With
an excellent radiational cooling regime setting up Saturday
night opted to knock lows down another degree or two.
Sunday through Monday...return swrly flow continue to moderate
temps back to climo and above, with highs in the mid 80s
possible by sun or Mon, and lows moderating back into the 60s.
It will continue to be dry however with upr ridge holding strong
over the southeast conus, although guidance suggests that ridge will
eventually break down with longwave troughing ejecting out of
the central U.S.
Aviation /14z Tuesday through Saturday/...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 630 am Tue...similar to yesterday area of low stratus and
patchy fog has overspread the taf sites. Guidance is even
quicker to lift it this morn and think shld be mainly gone by
14z with VFR rest of the day. As drier air spreads in tonight
with decent north-northeast breeze not expecting another round of fog/St
with VFR cont.
Long term /Wed through Sat/...
as of 300 am Tue...strong high pressure builds in late Tue
through the end of the week with Humberto passing well offshore
bringing tightening pressure gradients and gusty north to
northeast winds, mainly during the day when mixing is maximized.
Otherwise, good flying conditions with mainly sunny skies and
lower humidities and continued breezes resulting in fog free
nights. Winds finally begin to diminish Friday into Saturday as
high pressure shifts directly overhead.
short term /today and tonight/...
as of 1005 am Tue...latest obs show NE winds 15-25 kt with seas
4-5 ft north of Oregon Inlet and 5-8 ft south. Marine
conditions will continue to deteriorate as swells from distant
Hurricane Humberto increase and NE winds ramp up as strong high
pres builds in from the north later today and tonight. NE winds will
reach 20 to 25 kts most wtrs later today and expect gusts aoa
30 kts most wtrs tonight. Seas of 5 to 8 feet this morn will
build to 6 to 9 feet later today then reach 6 to 11 ft late
Long term /Wed through Sat/...
as of 300 am Tue...Small Craft Advisory conditions expected through much of the
long term with gusty nerly winds, dangerously large seas as
combined swells from tc Humberto and pressure gradient between
building high pressure and Humberto well offshore impact the
Solid Small Craft Advisory winds in the 20-30 kt range with ocnl gusts to 35 kt
expected through thur, then gradient lesses by Thu night into
Fri with winds decrease to the 10-20 kt range. Swell from
Humberto will peak around 12-14 ft Wednesday night into
Thursday, then begin to slowly subside on Friday, though remain
above 6 ft into at least the first half of the weekend.
as of 230 am Tue...longer period swells from tc Humberto will
lead to a high threat of rip currents this week. In addition to
the swells, strong NE winds will develop this evening into Thu
as strong high pres builds in from the NE. These winds combined
with the swells will produce large seas likely aoa 10 feet over
portions of the coastal wtrs. With waves heights in surf zone
expected to build to 8 ft later tonight will issue high surf
advisory from Cape Lookout north. The high surf will cont thru the
end of the week and may see some overwash in vulnerable
locations later in week during high tide.
NC...beach hazards statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for ncz195-
High surf advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Friday
Marine...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM EDT
Thursday for amz131-137-230-231.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 2 am EDT
Friday for amz135.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Sunday for amz152-154-156-
Small Craft Advisory until 8 am EDT Sunday for amz150.