Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmhx 190606
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
106 am EST Tue Nov 19 2019
troughing lingers off the coast through early week. High pressure
builds into the area Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front
will push through this weekend.
Near term /until 6 am this morning/...
as of 100 am tues...a dreary, misty night continues across
eastern NC, with low level clouds holding strong under an
inversion. Aside from some mist/sprinkles it should be dry the
rest of the night, with some areas of fog developing towards
sunrise. Temps will remain in the low to mid 40s.
Short term /6 am this morning through 6 PM today/...
as of 300 PM Mon...a series of mid/upper level disturbances
will cross the eastern NC tomorrow, while weak high pressure
builds in. The disturbances will not be as strong as the one as
today, but could trigger some sprinkles. All the hi-res models
have the area dry as low-level moisture is limited; below 850
mb. Will continue to forecast a dry weather with highs in the
upper 50s to around 60 degrees.
Long term /tonight through Monday/...
as of 230 PM Mon...mostly quiet weather with near to slightly
below normal temps expected through much of this week, with
unsettled weather developing late week into the weekend.
Strong high pressure will build over the region in the wake of
the low through Thursday. Decent shortwave will push through
the area Tue evening, which could trigger isolated to widely
scattered light showers. Will keep SC pop along the coast during
the evening,. Temperatures will be fairly close to climatology,
with highs in the low/mid 60s and lows in the low/mid 40s.
Both the GFS and European model (ecmwf) indicate a return of unsettled weather
Friday into the weekend. A frontal boundary moves into the
region late Friday/Friday night...stalls to the S Sat with low
pres moving along it Sunday. Mdls cont to have timing/placement
differences with these systems so cont prev fcst of chance
pops. Dry weather looks to return early next week as front
pushes offshore with high pres building in from the west.
Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/...
short term /through Wednesday morning/...
as of 100 am tues...IFR conditions are expected to continue
through mid morning, in the form of low level stratus. For the
rest of the night, ceilings will gradually lower to LIFR levels,
with some areas of fog also expected to develop. MVFR
conditions look to return by late morning, with VFR conditions
expected by the afternoon under broken ceilings.
Long term /Tuesday night through Sat/...
as of 230 PM Mon...expect pred VFR Tue night through Thu with
high pressure in control. Unsettled weather returns late in the
week into the weekend as front moves into the area with some
pds of sub- VFR likely.
short term /through Tuesday/...
as of 730 PM Mon...large northeast swell from the departing low
pressure system will gradually fade overnight, then diminish
quicker Tuesday. Hazardous seas will persist for the waters
near and north of Cape Hatteras through Tuesday, with hazardous
seas continuing south of Ocracoke Inlet into Tuesday morning.
Scas remain in effect accordingly. Persistent troughing off the
coast will keep light to moderate northwest flow in place
Long term /Tuesday night through Sat/...
as of 230 PM Mon...light northwest winds Tue evening begin to increase
a bit late Tue night following passage of a decent short wave
with seas 3 to 5 ft. High pres will build across Wed and Thu
with northwest winds 15 to 20 kts Wed becoming light west later Thu.
Expect west-southwest winds to increase to 15-25 kt ahead of an approaching
front Thu night and Fri, and could see Small Craft Advisory conditions develop
Fri. On Sat expect mainly west winds 10 to 20 kts as front init to
the S begins to lift back north.
Seas will be 3 to 5 ft Wed, though could see some 6 ft seas
develop far outer central wtrs in the gusty northwest flow. Seas will
temporarily subside to 2-4 ft Thu, then building back to 4-6 ft
Fri. Seas will be mainly 3 to 5 ft Sat.
as of 730 PM Mon...northeast swell from the departing low has
been slow to subside, and prevailing periods of 12-13 seconds
justify extending the high surf advisory north of Cape Lookout
into Tuesday morning.
Though winds have subsided, water in the Pamlico Sound and
surrounding waterways is still slowly working its way back into
equilibrium. Elevated water levels will persist Tuesday for some
locations, especially across the mid and upper Pamlico Sound
and near inlets. Widespread coastal flooding is not expected,
but localized areas of water levels of 1 ft of inundation or
less are possible.
NC...high surf advisory until 7 am EST this morning for ncz196-
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for amz150-
Small Craft Advisory until 7 am EST this morning for amz156-