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fxus62 kmhx 251335 
afdmhx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
935 am EDT Sat may 25 2019

Synopsis...
high pressure will push off the mid-Atlantic coast today then
become centered off the southeast coast Sunday. Another
backdoor front will move into the region Monday, but then will
quickly retreat north Tuesday, with very hot temperatures
expected across the region through at least the middle of next
week. A cold front is expected to move into the area Friday.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
as of 930 am Sat...high pressure will push off the mid-Atlantic
coast later this morning, and will act to reinforce easterly
flow across eastern NC. Expect cooler conditions today
especially along the coast, where temps will remain in the low
to mid 80s. Further inland, temps will still reach the low to
possibly mid 90s later this afternoon.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 am Sunday/...
as of 300 am Saturday...weak shortwave energy rides over the
ridge tonight and several models showing isolated showers or
thunderstorms across the area after midnight, so increased pops
to slight chance for much of the area late tonight. At the
surface, high pressure migrates south off the East Coast
becoming centered off the NC coast late tonight with low level
flow becoming southerly after midnight. Lows tonight expected in
the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

Long term /Sunday through Friday/...
as of 350 am Saturday...a subtropical surface ridge coupled with
an abnormally strong late-Spring upper level ridge will continue
to produce hot and mostly dry weather for much of the next week.
Well above normal temperatures well into the 90s inland are
expected Sunday through at least Thursday. The axis of heat
peaks on Wednesday where several inland locations could reach
100 degrees or a little higher. Even on the coast, high
temperatures will likely reach 90 degrees or better in many
locations during this heat waves. Overnight lows will likewise
be quite warm with mostly upper 60s inland and 70s near the
coast.

Differential heating boundaries in the afternoon and evening
could produce an isolated shower or storm most any day, but the
coverage of any precipitation is very low and have left out of
the forecast through Thu. The upper ridge finally shows signs of
breaking down later Thursday into early next week as heights
fall and a bit more moisture enters the area. Have kept a slight
chance of showers/storms Friday with chance pops for Saturday.

&&

Aviation /14z Saturday through Wednesday/...
short term /through 06z Sunday/...
as of 730 am Saturday...VFR conditions expected to prevail
through the taf period. Upper ridging will will bring dry
conditions today, but weak shortwave energy rides over the ridge
tonight and could see an isolated shower or thunderstorm across
rtes late tonight. Light easterly flow this morning, becomes
southeast around 10 kt mid to late afternoon into the evening
hours.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
as of 220 PM Friday...VFR conditions are likely throughout the
extended period. Cannot rule out patchy shallow fog or stratus
early in the morning each day, but the extent should be short
and limited. The chances of showers/tstms will also be very
slim.

&&

Marine...
short term /through tonight/...
as of 315 am Saturday...high pressure migrates off the mid-
Atlantic coast today, then moves to off the NC coast late
tonight. Expect generally easterly winds around 10 kt or less
expected through early afternoon, then winds veer to southeast and
increase to 10-15 kt late this afternoon, becoming S late
tonight. Seas expected around 2-3 ft into early evening, then
builds to 3-4 ft late after midnight with up to 5 ft possible
across the outer central waters.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
as of 355 am Saturday...SW winds are likely to increase to 15-20
knots over the coastal waters late Sunday into Sunday night as a
weak front approaches from the northwest. This front will get
far enough south to produce a wind shift to NE/east Monday and
Monday over the northern tier. The front will lift back north on
Tuesday with winds becoming south-southwest 10 to 20 kts on the coastal
waters and sounds. South-southwest winds persist Wed at 10 to 15 kts early
with some 15 to 20 knot winds likely late.

Seas will build to 3-5 feet late Sunday into Sunday, but should
remain in the 2-4 foot range for much of the extended period.

&&

Climate...
record or near record warmth is expected for much of next week.



Record high temps for 5/26 (sunday)

Location temperature/year
New Bern 100/1953 (kewn asos)
Cape Hatteras 88/1962 (khse asos)
Greenville 99/1927 (coop - not kpgv awos)
Morehead City 96/1953 (coop - not kmrh asos)
Kinston 96/2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
Jacksonville 94/2004 (knca asos)

Record high temps for 5/27 (monday)

Location temperature/year
New Bern 96/1989 (kewn asos)
Cape Hatteras 86/2004 (khse asos)
Greenville 96/1962 (coop - not kpgv awos)
Morehead City 88/2006 (coop - not kmrh asos)
Kinston 96/2011 (coop - not kiso awos)
Jacksonville 97/1989 (knca asos)

Record high temps for 5/28 (tuesday)

Location temperature/year
New Bern 93/2014 (kewn asos)
Cape Hatteras 87/1991 (khse asos)
Greenville 97/1916 (coop - not kpgv awos)
Morehead City 88/2006 (coop - not kmrh asos)
Kinston 93/2004 (coop - not kiso awos)
Jacksonville 95/1967 (knca asos)

Record high temps for 5/29 (wednesday)

Location temperature/year
New Bern 95/1982 (kewn asos)
Cape Hatteras 91/1991 (khse asos)
Greenville 95/1918 (coop - not kpgv awos)
Morehead City 92/1991 (coop - not kmrh asos)
Kinston 93/1991 (coop - not kiso awos)
Jacksonville 94/1967 (knca asos)

&&

Mhx watches/warnings/advisories...
NC...none.
Marine...none.

&&

$$
Synopsis...mhx
near term...sgk
short term...sk

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