Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmlb 211840
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
240 PM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019
..hazardous boating and surf conditions continue this weekend...
Currently-tonight...strong ridge centered off the mid-Atlantic coast
will maintain an elevated low level easterly flow over the area into
tonight. Breezy winds will diminish over the interior and north of
the cape after sunset, but remain around 15 to 20 mph and gusty
along coastal locations of southern Brevard to Martin counties. This
will keep min temps elevated around the mid-upper 70s across this
portion of the coast, while farther north and inland lows in the low
70s are expected, possibly upper 60s in more wind sheltered interior
locations. Low level moisture thins out even more into tonight, and
even with breezy onshore flow, not expecting anything more than
isolated sprinkles reaching the coast, so will keep rain chances
below mentionable levels.
Sunday-Tuesday...high pressure ridge north of the area will
gradually shift farther east with weaker high pressure breaking off
and lingering across the northern Gulf Coast into early next week.
Low level easterly winds will remain elevated, maintaining breezy
conditions into tomorrow, but then winds will gradually relax as
they back more to the northeast into Mon-Tue. A very dry airmass
will remain in place, with no rain chances forecast. Max temps will
warm slightly but remain near normal, ranging from the mid-upper 80s
along the coast to upper 80s/low 90s across the interior through the
Lingering large, long-period swells from Humberto will continue to
keep beach conditions hazardous into Sunday, with dangerous rip
currents and rough surf. A high surf advisory along the coast of
east central Florida continues through tomorrow.
Wednesday-Saturday...(previous discussion) dominant ridge over
the southeast will amplify northward across the Gulf region and further
into the mid Atlc region the latter half of the week. A gentle
onshore flow will keep temperatures restricted, especially near
the coast with rain chcs in the absence of any notable moisture
return remaining to silent to very low chcs through the middle of
next week. Some small rain chcs will begin to develop around Fri
into Sat as moisture creeps back into the area underneath the
ridge in developing southeast flow. Expect highs in the u80s to l90s with
lows in the 70s.
Aviation...VFR conditions prevail. Breezy conditions through this
evening, sustained east winds around 15 knots with gusts between 20-
25 knots. Winds stay gusty at the coast overnight, and another
breezy day expected Sunday.
tonight-Sunday...hazardous boating conditions will continue as a
moderate to fresh east/east-northeast breeze combines with lingering swells from
Humberto to produce seas up to 9-11 feet offshore into tonight and 7-
9 feet tomorrow. A Small Craft Advisory will continue across the
entire coastal waters through Sunday evening, except nearshore
Volusia with the Small Craft Advisory ending over this portion of the waters by
late afternoon Sunday.
Monday-Thursday...(previous discussion) WV heights begin to slip to
6 ft or less during Mon and if forecast holds all headlines should
finally be lowered incrementally over the waters early in the work
week. Decaying swell should continue to make up the primary wave
component into at least Wed of next week. High pressure as dominant
feature locally will bring favorable conditions for the area due to
rather light winds Tue-Thu.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
dab 73 85 70 86 / 10 10 0 0
mco 70 88 69 89 / 10 10 0 0
mlb 76 86 74 87 / 10 10 10 10
vrb 75 86 71 86 / 10 10 10 10
Lee 71 90 69 90 / 0 0 0 0
sfb 70 88 69 89 / 10 10 0 0
orl 71 88 70 89 / 10 10 0 0
fpr 75 87 72 87 / 10 10 10 10
Florida...high surf advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for coastal Volusia-
Indian River-Martin-northern Brevard-southern Brevard-St.
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Sunday for Flagler Beach to
Volusia-Brevard County line 0-20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Sunday for Flagler Beach to
Volusia-Brevard County line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
nm-Volusia-Brevard County line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.