Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus62 kmlb 170210
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne Florida
910 PM EST Sat Nov 16 2019
a large gale centered off the southeast coast will generate a brisk and
steady northwest flow acrs Florida overnight. Strong subsidence inversion on the
backside of the gale has trapped btwn 0.75"-1.00" of precipitable
water blo the 850 mb lyr as noted by the 17/00z raobs. Latest infrared Sat
pics shows a large St/SC deck over Florida extending well into south
Georgia...wrap around moisture assocd with the gale. Sfc obs measuring
cigs generally 1,000-1,500ft acrs central and North Florida. Abv the
inversion, airmass is Bone dry with 850 mb-h50 avg dewpoint
depressions btwn 15-20c.
Nil precip chances tonight as depicted in the current grids. Coolest
night of the season on hand overnight as the cold air advection
generated by the northwest flow pushes min temps into the M/u40s along and
north of I-4, and into the l/m50s over the Treasure Coast/lake-o
region. Update will primarily address sky cover, which will need to
be increased based on latest satellite trends.
Sfc winds: thru 17/12z...north of kvrb-ksef north/northwest 9-13kts with ocnl g18-
23kts...S of kvrb-ksef north/northwest 6-10kts. Aft 17/12z-17/21z...N/NW 8-
12kts...coastal sites north of ktix ocnl sfc g18-22kts. Aft 17/21z...
bcmg north/northwest 6-9kts.
Vsbys/wx: VFR all sites.
Cigs: thru 17/13z...north of kvrb-Kobe MVFR cigs btwn fl010-015 LCL IFR
cigs btwn fl006-009...S of kvrb-Kobe MVFR cigs btwn fl020-030. Btwn
17/13z-17/17z...MVFR cigs btwn fl020-030 all sites. Btwn 17/18z-
17/21z...east of klee-kgif bcmg VFR. Aft 17/21z...east of kdab-ksef bcmg
gale centered off the southeast coast will maintain strong nwrly flow over
the LCL Atlc...fresh to strong breeze acrs the nearshore leg as well
as the offshore leg of the Treasure Coast...strong breeze to near
gale conditions offshore north of Sebastian Inlet. Large swells
generated by the gale will advect into the LCL Atlc overnight, seas
building to 7-9ft nearshore and over 12ft offshore. No changes to
the gale/Small Craft Advisory configuration with the evening update...gale conditions
expected to diminish early sun mrng as the storm tracks east, but
Small Craft Advisory conditions expected to continue thru Tue aftn.
Florida...high surf advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for coastal Volusia-
Indian River-Martin-northern Brevard-southern Brevard-St.
Am...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST Monday for Flagler Beach to
Volusia-Brevard County line 0-20 nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST Tuesday for Sebastian Inlet
to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet
20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County line to Sebastian Inlet 0-
Small Craft Advisory from 4 am Sunday to 3 PM EST Tuesday for
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County line 20-60 nm-
Volusia-Brevard County line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.
Gale Warning until 4 am EST Sunday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County line 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County line to
Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.