Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

FXUS62 KMLB 140753

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
353 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

...High Risk of Life-Threatening Rip Currents Continues At Area 

Current...A few light showers are developing just offshore of 
Brevard county and the Treasure Coast counties. This is due to 
convergence between a land breeze and light easterly synoptic flow. 
One or two of these may brush the immediate coast, but will only 
amount to a brief period of light rain or sprinkles.

Today-Tonight...00Z XMR sounding continued to show a very stable 
airmass with a strong subsidence inversion noted just above 850 mb 
(5000 ft AGL).  Above this, there remains extremely dry air, and 
forecast soundings only show slight moistening of the atmosphere 
today. Weak surface high pressure centered offshore of GA/SC will 
keep a light easterly flow around 5 mph this morning increasing to
around 10 mph this afternoon as the seabreeze circulation 
develops and moves inland. A couple of light showers may develop 
in the vicinity of Lake Okeechobee this afternoon with sea 
breeze/lake breeze interactions, but not enough coverage is expected
to include isolated showers in the forecast. All in all the 
forecast is similar to that of Sunday with warm and dry conditions
and high temperatures ranging from the mid 80s for coastal areas 
and upper 80s to near 90 inland. 

Lingering, long-period swells will make the risk of life-threatening 
rip currents high at area beaches along with rough surf. It is 
strongly advised to not enter the surf.

Winds will diminish after sunset, and if another land breeze 
develops overnight, convergence may develop some light showers or 
sprinkles again along or just offshore of the immediate Space and 
Treasure Coasts. Skies will range from mostly clear to partly cloudy 
with low temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. 

Tue-Wed...Ridge responsible for fair conditions to start the week
will move seaward as LL winds veer slightly south. Despite some 
increase in moisture the airmass wl remain to stable to support a
mentionable rain chc. It will be seasonably warm with highs in the
M-U80s and lows in the U60-L70s. A developing sfc low north of the
state early Wed wl move off the Mid Atlc coast by late Wed. The
feature will drag a frontal boundary near N FL late Wed night.
Incrsg instability ascd with this upstream feature will bring a
mentionable rain chc, esp across Nrn zones by Wed Aftn, with a
storm or two possible by late aftn. Upr level forcing dosen't
appear to suggest any higher than sct rain chcs attm with isold 
chcs invof Lake Okee and the Treasure Cst. 

Extended...The surface boundary is shown settling across the
central or southern peninsula late in the week with moisture
convergence and perhaps some forcing from above with potential for
isold storms Thu and Fri as a mid level disturbance or two moves 
across the region through Fri. Wl keep sct rain chcs in the 
forecast through the period of the weekend, with uncertainty on 
any favored area for measurable daily rains due to placement of 
sfc features. Considerable cloud cover should keep temp range near
to slightly below normal. 


There could be some reduction in visibility at MLB this morning due 
to smoke from a nearby smoldering brushfire, especially if winds 
veer to NNW/NW. Otherwise, dry and VFR conditions all sites through 
the TAF period.


Today-tonight...Improving conditions with light easterly winds of 5-
10 kt today veering to the southeast tonight. Seas of 3-5 ft 
nearshore and 4-5 ft offshore will subside to 3-4 ft by tonight.

Tue-Wed...Onshore winds Tue 10 kt of less will veer to more sly 
component and increase somewhat during Wed. Seas average 3-4ft 
with slightly higher seas offshore. 

Extended...Sfc boundary moving near the marine area mid to late 
week will keep favorable conditions with no headlines for wind or
seas expected. Seas 2-3 ft by Wed night and into Fri. Winds 10 kt
or less expected.  


DAB  86  69  86  71 /  10  10  10  10 
MCO  90  71  89  72 /  10   0  10  10 
MLB  86  71  85  69 /  10  10  10  10 
VRB  85  69  85  67 /  10  10  10  10 
LEE  89  72  87  73 /  10  10  10  10 
SFB  88  70  87  72 /  10  10  10  10 
ORL  90  72  89  72 /  10   0  10  10 
FPR  85  67  85  67 /  10  10  10  10 




National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations