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fxus64 kmob 181145 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
645 am CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

Discussion...updated for latest aviation discussion below.


12z issuance...VFR conditions will remain prevalent through the
forecast period. A few very isolated rain showers or thunderstorms and rain may develop by
this afternoon, but the probability of terminal impact remains
very low. Light northwest winds will continue today, except
becoming southwest near the coast this afternoon. /21


Previous discussion... /issued 452 am CDT Wed Sep 18 2019/

Near term /now through Wednesday night/...the hot weather pattern
will persist across the forecast area today as a mid to upper level
ridge of high pressure continues to extend northeastward across the
lower Mississippi Valley and the north central Gulf Coast region.
More record breaking heat will be possible today as high
temperatures look on track to reach the upper 90s to around 101
degrees over most interior portions of the cwa, with readings in the
lower to mid 90s along the immediate coast and beaches. The record
highs for today are 96 at kmob (last set on this date just last year
in 2018) and 96 at kpns (set in 2005). The current forecast highs
are around 98 today at both Mobile and Pensacola, which would set
new records for the date. Dewpoints should mix out into the lower to
mid 60s over interior areas by this afternoon, but may remain in the
lower to mid 70s near the immediate coast with a developing
seabreeze this afternoon. Resultant maximum heat index readings
should range from the upper 90s to around 105 degrees today.
Convergence along the developing seabreeze near the coast and also
along a low to mid level Theta-E ridge axis over interior areas may
result in the development of a few showers and possibly a
thunderstorm or two around the area today. These should be few and
far between, so the chance of measurable rain will be less than 20%
again today. Will opt to include a 10-15% pop in the above mentioned
areas and include isolated convective wording in the forecast.

Easterly winds are forecast to increase in speed across eastern
portions of our forecast area late tonight as a back door cold front
moves into south central Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle courtesy of
a strong surface ridge of high pressure building southwestward from
the mid-Atlantic states to the Appalachian Mountains and adjacent
southeastern U.S. There may be enough moisture for the development
of a few showers along this boundary over our far eastern zones this
evening, and perhaps near the Florida Panhandle coast and adjacent
offshore marine zones late tonight. Otherwise, lows tonight are
still expected to range from around 70 to the lower 70s inland, and
in the mid to upper 70s near the coast and beaches. /21

Short term /Thursday through Friday night/...a strong sfc ridge
will build across the mid-Atlantic coast into the southeast
during the latter half of the week. This will bring an easterly
flow to the area as a back-door cold front moves through the area
on Thursday and brings a decrease to the hot temps along with a
drier airmass to the area. This feature will also produce isolated
to scattered showers and storms to the area on Thursday as it
moves across. Unfortunately, rain amounts will be light and will
not put a Dent in the drought conditions. Highs will be in the
upper 80s to around 90s Thursday and Friday. The drier air will
allow temps to drop into the mid and upper 60s inland Thursday and
Friday nights. /13

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...deep layer ridging will
continue over the area through the extended range. This will
continue to suppress precip development through much of the
period. However, by next week enough low level moisture returns
isolated rain chances to return. Highs will generally be in the
lower 90s. /13

Marine...a weak surface ridge of high pressure will remain over the
north central Gulf today. Light northwest winds this morning will
become west to southwest this afternoon and evening. A moderate to
strong easterly flow will develop over the marine area late tonight
into Thursday, then continue through the upcoming weekend as a
strong ridge of high pressure builds from the eastern Seaboard to
the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. Small craft will likely need to
exercise caution over most of the marine area, including protected
waters Thursday through Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory may
eventually become necessary over the Gulf marine zones, particularly
late Thursday into Friday. /21


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...

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