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Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Mobile Alabama
358 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2019

Near term /now through Wednesday/...development of isolated
convection is finally underway along the seabreeze this afternoon,
as a few cells are initiating across northeastern Mobile/northern
Baldwin counties in southwest al, and also just east of Niceville,
Florida as of 315 PM CDT. Storm Prediction Center mesoscale analysis continues to show a zone
of higher instability with MLCAPE values between 2000-3000 j/kg
across southeast MS, portions of interior southwest Alabama and eastward
across the western Florida Panhandle. Isolated to scattered showers and
storms should continue to develop over this part of the area late
this afternoon and lift across southwest and south central Alabama and
interior portions of the northwest Florida Panhandle late this afternoon
before probably gradually diminishing into the early to mid evening
hours. We are also monitoring another area of stronger convection
near the la/MS border this afternoon, which is associated with a
shortwave trough lifting over this region. There is potential that
convection associated with this feature could continue to develop
eastward toward southeast MS through this evening. We will therefore
continue chance pops over these portions of our forecast area into
this evening, with lower chances farther south near the immediate
coast. The strong instability and moist airmass will support
downburst potential with the stronger storms that develop, so we
will be monitoring for localized damaging wind gusts, in addition to
frequent lightning and brief heavy rainfall with the stronger storms
that develop.

Ridging aloft builds across the north central Gulf of Mexico on
Wednesday while an upper level trough/low moves eastward across
northern Alabama. A slightly drier airmass (dewpoints mixing into the
60s inland and around 70 closer to the coast) also looks to return
over our region Wednesday as a surface ridge of high pressure
builds from the Appalachian Mountains to the north central Gulf
Coast. There is still some uncertainty on overall convective
coverage that may develop across our area Wednesday, but
considering there will be enough moisture available in both the
low levels and the deep layers, that we will be located on the
base of the passing trough, we will keep a low chance of showers
and storms in the forecast for Wednesday afternoon. Highs should
once again reach the lower to mid 90s inland, and around 90
degrees closer to the beaches. The slightly drier airmass should
allow for lower heat index values in the 95-100 degrees range
(perhaps slightly higher in a few spots). /21

Short term /Wednesday night through Friday night/...25.12z
global spectral models continue to show a break in the mid level sub-
tropical ridge positioned from the mid-Atlantic to the Gulf to close
out the week. Within the weakness, an inverted 850 mb/weakly defined
surface pressure trof over the Florida Peninsula Wednesday night migrates
very slowly westward, becoming positioned over the central Gulf
Coast Friday am. This feature looks to only make it as far west as
southeast la Friday night to end this period of the forecast. A
slight to perhaps low end chance of showers/storms Thursday looks to
become mostly in the chance category by Friday considering the
better influence/focus for ascent from the low level trof feature by

Warmest day in the short term is Thursday with lower to mid
90s for highs. With better chances of showers and storms Friday,
highs are favored to be a few degrees lower overall at 88 to 90
close to the coast and lower half of the 90s interior. Little change
in night-time lows, remaining near to a couple degrees on
average, above climatology. /10

Long term /Saturday through Tuesday/...inverted mid level trof
axis, progged to be aligned from the lower MS River Valley to the
western Gulf Saturday morning continues a slow westward shift into
Texas by Sunday. Meanwhile, mid level heights to begin rising over
southeast Monday and Tuesday where an upper ridge is shown to
evolve. Will maintain a modest chance of daytime showers/storms over
the weekend coincident with time of best heating and resultant
instability. Will maintain chance pops Monday and Tuesday, but all
is dependent on how strong the ridge axis aloft over the
southeast is. If the ridge aloft is more amplified (stronger),
then large scale subsidence would effectively result in a lower
chance of showers/storms early next week.

Highs change little over the weekend with lower to mid 90s north of
the beaches. At the beaches, mostly in the upper 80s is advertised.
Daytime highs trend higher, ranging 93 to 97 over the interior
early next week with beaches lifting into the lower 90s. Lows
typically in the lower to mid 70s over the weekend and continuing
a slight warming trend into the first of next week. /10


Marine...a surface ridge of high pressure will build across the
north central Gulf Coast region through Wednesday, then westward
across the western Gulf of Mexico through the end of the week. A
generally light to occasionally moderate westerly flow this
afternoon becomes northerly Wednesday into Thursday. Onshore flow
redevelops Friday into the weekend as high pressure builds back into
the eastern Gulf. Isolated to scattered showers and storms remain
possible through the period, with the best chances this weekend.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
Mobile 73 96 73 95 73 92 71 91 / 20 20 10 20 20 40 30 50
Pensacola 77 93 76 93 76 90 75 88 / 10 20 10 20 20 30 40 50
Destin 78 91 78 90 78 88 77 87 / 10 20 10 20 20 30 40 50
Evergreen 71 95 72 96 72 93 72 93 / 30 20 10 20 20 30 30 50
Waynesboro 70 93 71 93 71 91 70 90 / 30 20 10 20 10 30 20 50
Camden 71 93 71 95 72 93 72 93 / 30 20 10 20 10 30 30 50
Crestview 72 95 72 94 72 92 71 92 / 20 20 10 20 20 30 30 60


Mob watches/warnings/advisories...

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