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fxus63 kmpx 232326 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
626 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.


Short term...(this evening through Wednesday night)
issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

An isolated storm developed east of Chippewa County in west
central Wisconsin during the early afternoon. This area of
instability was associated with a weak short wave moving southward
across the western edge of the main storm system over
southeastern Canada. At the surface, regional satellite imagery
noted the center of the high pressure system across the Buffalo
Ridge in eastern South Dakota.

Other than an isolated shower or storm in Rusk, Chippewa, and Eau
Claire counties of west central Wisconsin early this evening, the
forecast will be dry through Wednesday night.

Today's air mass will be similar on Wednesday, and may be even
drier across western Minnesota as mid-level drying continues to
unfold in the wake of the departing surface high. Winds will
become southwest on Wednesday and begin to increase Wednesday
night in advance of the next cold front moving into the Dakotas.

Long term...(thursday through tuesday)
issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

A bit more active weather pattern along with continued above-
normal temperatures can be expected through the latter portion of
this week into early next week.

For the end of this week, thunderstorm chances return Thursday
night through the first half of Friday as a cold front pushes
across the Dakotas and into Minnesota in conjunction with a potent upper
level low shifting east across Saskatchewan and Manitoba
provinces. Stronger low level return flow in advance of the cold
front will bring not only a reinforcement of the warmer air but
also an increase in low-level moisture such that dewpoints
increase to the mid-to-upper 60s. With heightened instability plus
a late-day into evening arrival of a stronger low level jet and pre-frontal
lifting, ingredients will be in place to support strong/severe
storms should any mid- level capping erode. While precipitation
amounts will not be overly excessive and coverage will mainly be
confined to central Minnesota into western WI, a few stronger storms
cannot be ruled out.

This cold front will push to the east Saturday, allowing for some
drying out time Saturday and Saturday night. Another cold front
will take a similar path across the Dakotas Sunday into Monday,
again within an environment featuring heightened instability and
modest upper level support. Will again look for scattered
thunderstorms early Sunday through Sunday night. When this second
cold front passes through the area Sunday night into Monday
morning, a bit of cold air advection will slide into the area,
nudging temperatures back down to the upper 70s to around 80 for
early next week as opposed to the continued mid-to-upper 80s for
the end of this week and the weekend.


Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Jul 23 2019

VFR conditions will prevail through the period as high pressure
slowly drifts east across the area. Some smoke will be around,
particularly in eastern sites, but won't impact lower level
visibility. There will be a bit of diurnal cu again on Wednesday,
but looks to be at or above 5k ft above ground level. concerns/uncertainty of significance.

/Outlook for kmsp/
Wednesday overnight...VFR. South wind around 5 kt.
Thursday...VFR. Southwest wind 5 to 15 kt.
Thursday night...MVFR possible with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Southwest wind around 10 kt.
Friday...MVFR possible with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.
Southwest wind around 10 kt.
Friday night...VFR. Southwest wind 5 kt or less.
Saturday...VFR. Southwest wind around 5 kt.


Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...


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