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fxus63 kmpx 150014 
afdmpx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen Minnesota
614 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Update...
issued at 612 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Updated to include 00z aviation discussion.

&&

Short term...(this evening through Friday night)
issued at 325 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

Generally speaking high pressure will remain across the upper
Midwest which means dry conditions through Friday night. There
will be a weak cold front sagging southward, and this could lead
to some stratus that gets hung up in the weak flow and lingers
throughout the day. This could make Friday more cloudy for some
than the current forecast indicates.

On Friday night high pressure will drift eastward and a low
pressure system will track across Canada. This will bring
southerly winds near 20 mph.

Long term...(saturday through thursday)
issued at 325 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

By Saturday evening a weak shortwave trough will shift eastward.
There should be enough lift and saturation to produce some light
quantitative precipitation forecast. Looks like more of a light precipitation event, so have
either a snow or drizzle mention in the weather grids. Surface
temps may be cool enough that there is a chance of freezing
drizzle.

Did increase pops a bit above the guidance, but these are likely
too low. The gefs has 80 to 90% chance of a hundredth of
precipitation, and the only reason it is not 100 is due to timing
issues. Confidence is fairly high that precipitation chances will
increase in the coming days, since there is a low probability that
any locations will remain dry. Beyond Sunday, continued with
blended guidance.

&&

Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 612 PM CST Thu Nov 14 2019

A deck of low-level clouds will move south from northern Minnesota
over our forecast area tonight. Thus, MVFR conditions will develop
tonight. The low-level cloud deck should begin to move out of our
region by the late morning hours on Friday and VFR condiitons will
return. Forecast and thus confidence overnight tonight into
Friday has not changed significantly.

Kmsp...

Low clouds and MVFR condintions will develop tonight as a low-
level cloud deck moves in from the north. These conditions should
last into the mid-morning hours on Friday and VFR conditions will
return on Friday afternoon. Forecast and thus confidence
overnight tonight into Friday has not changed significantly.

/Outlook for kmsp/
Sat...MVFR ceilings with -rasn possible late. Wind S 10-20 kts.
Sun...VFR with MVFR ceilings possible. Wind northwest 5-10 kts.
Mon...VFR with MVFR ceilings possible. Wind west 5-10 kts.

&&

Mpx watches/warnings/advisories...
WI...none.
Minnesota...none.
&&

$$

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