Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 kmso 122153 
afdmso

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Missoula Montana
253 PM MST Tue Nov 12 2019

Discussion...a weather system is moving through the northern
rockies this afternoon with snow occurring across northwest
Montana. Up to an inch has fallen thus far in Whitefish, West
Glacier, Kalispell and Eureka. A mix of snow and sleet is falling
in the Mission Valley. Snow is expected for another few hours in
northwest Montana.

This system will sag southward through the evening hours. A mix
of rain and snow is expected across west central and southwest
Montana. Local snow accumulations of a few inches are expected,
especially at higher elevations. Wet roads may become slick just
after sunset this evening.

A ridge of high pressure will strengthen over Washington on Wednesday
resulting in a northwest flow much of the day. A few mountain
showers are possible. The ridge is expected to shift eastward over
the northern rockies Wednesday night and Thursday. Stable air
under the ridge will be conducive for a strengthening inversion
and valley fog Thursday morning and possibly Friday morning.

Another disturbance is anticipated to impact the northern rockies
on Friday into Saturday morning. This feature will bring another
round of widespread to numerous showers. Snow levels should be
relatively high during the passage of this front that snow
accumulations appear to be confined to the higher terrain and
mountain passes. Lookout, Lolo and lost trail passes could end up
with a couple of inches of new snow by Saturday morning.

A ridge of high pressure rebounds over the northern rockies for
the weekend causing a slight warming and drying period. This ridge
will be short lived as the models are hinting at a more
significant weather feature for the first part of next week. A
wide divergence in the models on how this feature will impact the
northern rockies, so a lot of uncertainty in the forecast at this
moment.

&&

Aviation...expect snow at kgpi through 13/0000z. Expect mountain
obscurations and lowering visibilities to 1-2 miles at times. This
weather system will sag southward through the evening. Kmso and
kbtm can expect snow and lower visibilities and mountain
obscurations between 12/2300z and 13/0400z. Ksmn can expect cloudy
skies. Patchy morning fog is possible Wednesday morning at kgpi
and kmso



&&

Mso watches/warnings/advisories...
Montana...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MST this evening
Kootenai/Cabinet region...Lower Clark Fork region.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MST this evening
Flathead/mission valleys.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM MST this evening West Glacier
region.

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations