Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 kmso 202254 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Missoula Montana
141 PM MST Wed Nov 20 2019

Discussion...high pressure and drier air has moved over the
northern rockies. The ground is quite moist. We can expect valley
areas to see patchy fog and the possibility of low clouds Thursday
with increased coverage by Friday morning. Temperatures will run 5
to 10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Slow moderation
will happen towards the weekend, especially in higher valleys.

On Saturday, the flow will shift from the north to more
northwesterly. This will usher in slightly cooler and moister air
aloft. In response we have added the chance for light snow and
rain showers for most of northwest and west central Montana
Saturday afternoon.

By Sunday afternoon, a wave will pass through the flow. This will
increase the chance for light snow overnight into Monday morning.
Although light in nature, the possibility of slick conditions
overnight into the morning commute does exist. This will be the
beginning of the overall change coming next week as much colder
air will be pulled in behind the trough. We expect Monday to be
the warmest day of the Thanksgiving week.

Long range forecast models continue to indicate that a much
colder, and potentially snowy pattern is on its way for the
Thanksgiving Holiday week. While the overall details remain
uncertain, confidence however is high for an overall pattern
change and much colder temperatures. Questions remain up in the
air on how much snow falls next week, but periods of snow
potentially impacting Holiday travel is possible. Stay apprised
to the forecast as we continue fine tune the details. Check our
website www.Weather.Gov/Missoula, as well as following US on
facebook and twitter for forecast updates.


Aviation...clearing has occurred everywhere except along the
Continental Divide and specifically btm. It is expected that btm
will slowly clear after midnight Wednesday. Patchy fog will
develop after 21/0900z around gpi, degrading visibility through


Mso watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations