Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 koax 052041
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
241 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019
..updated forecast discussion...
issued at 228 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019
A weak upper level trough is expected to swing through the area
today. At the surface, we are situated between a low pressure to
the north and a low pressure to our southwest which will pass well
south of our area tonight. The low to our north will pass through
this afternoon, dragging a weak cold front with it. Expect a dry
passage of the front this evening, but winds will switch around to
the north and become gusty up to 30 mph tonight.
Overnight the upper level trough will move through and will bring
precipitation well to our south in Kansas and Oklahoma. All models
with the exception of the NAM keep the forecast completely dry.
NAM shows just small chances of some freezing drizzle this
evening, mainly along the Kansas border. Any chances for drizzle will
be dependent on how much moisture builds into the area with the
thickening clouds. With that said, will keep the forecast dry with
most models keeping everything south.
After the front skedaddles out of the area, Friday will be mildly
cooler with winds diminishing and becoming more southerly.
Sunshine will build back in across the area Friday afternoon. Over
the weekend, the upper level ridge will move overhead and the sun
will be dominant with highs in the upper 40s and 50s.
By the end of the weekend, focus will be turning to the
approaching strong cold front which will swing into the area on
Monday and bring significantly colder temperatures across the
area. Monday will also see some chances of light snow, especially
across northern NE. Snow is expected to remain light with little
accumulation expected. Highs Monday through Wednesday are expected
to range from the low 20s in the north to the low 30s in the
south (10 to 15 degrees below normal). Lows will be mainly in the
teens, and even near single digits on Tuesday night. By Thursday,
temperatures will improve to the 30s. Dry conditions are expected
through Thursday night when small chances for precip may return
to the forecast.
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 1126 am CST Thu Dec 5 2019
Light winds today will shift to northerly as a front moves through
the area. Also expect increasing clouds this evening to MVFR after
0z, then ofk may see IFR by 02z. With the passage of the front,
northerly winds will become gusty overnight reaching 25 knots.
Conditions will improve Friday morning as winds diminish and
clouds will lift.