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fxus63 koax 142010 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
310 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Short term...(tonight through saturday)
issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

At 3 PM, skies were mostly clear across Nebraska and Iowa, with
just a few wispy cirrus drifting by at around 25,000 ft. Southerly
flow and weak ridging aloft have helped temperatures push into
the mid 60s this afternoon over the metros, while some spots in
central Nebraska have crept into the 70s.

A shortwave trough over the northern tier of the U.S. Will drive a
cold front through the region tonight. Behind the front surface
high pressure will build south and winds will become gusty from the
northwest. Sustained winds of 18 to 25 mph, and gusts in the 30
to 40 mph range are possible tomorrow (strongest in the
afternoon). It continues to look like winds will be below
advisory strength. Due to the continued Brown up in fuels, gusty
winds, and minimum relative humidity values in the 40s tomorrow
afternoon, the fire weather risk will be higher than it has been
in a while. Temperatures will fall behind the front, though the
decline won't be to dramatic. High temperatures should range from
near 50 along the NE/South Dakota border to around 60 along the Kansas/NE border
tomorrow afternoon.

Unremarkable weather is expected over the plains Wednesday through
Friday, as surface high pressure shifts eastward and ridging
builds aloft. Winds will be breezy from the south Thursday and
Friday thanks to returning southerly flow on the west side of the
surface high. This could increase the fire weather risk. A
gradual warming trend is expected during this period as well with
temperatures in the low 70s by Friday.

Long term...(saturday through monday)
issued at 214 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

A strong storm system is projected to move into the Central
Plains over the upcoming weekend. This will bring more cloud
cover, and increasing rain chances Sunday/Monday. Can't rule out a
couple thunderstorms, but severe weather appears unlikely at this
time. Overall confidence in the synoptic pattern this far out is
moderate to high given ensemble forecasts.


Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Tuesday afternoon)
issued at 1245 PM CDT Mon Oct 14 2019

Prevailing VFR conditions (unrestricted visibility and cloud
bases at or above 20,000 ft above ground level will continue through 18z Tuesday.
Southerly winds in the 10-15 mph range will dominated through 04z
Tuesday, with a transition to northerly winds between 04z and 10z
Tuesday over the Missouri River valley. All three taf sites
(koma, kofk, and klnk) will shift to northerly winds during this
period. The northerly winds will become gusty (sustained winds
16-22 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt) after 10z Tuesday.


Oax watches/warnings/advisories...


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