Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 koax 070041
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/valley NE
641 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019
..updated aviation forecast discussion...
issued at 305 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019
Today and tonight:
Today will be mildly colder behind the cold front the pushed through
the region Thursday. Expect plenty of sunshine through the
afternoon and highs mainly in the 30s across the area.
Temperatures tonight will dip down into the 20s with clear skies.
As we head into the weekend, there is some great weather in the
forecast. Near zonal flow in the upper levels will allow for the
development of an 850 trough. Ahead of the trough expect strong
warm air advection and southerly flow at the surface on Saturday.
Southerly winds will pick up to near 25 mph on Saturday. Sunday
will see weak flow at the surface and warmer temperatures
remaining in the area before the next system that will morning in
by Monday. Saturday and Sunday will be a great day to enjoy the
outdoors or get those last minute Christmas lights up, with highs
in the upper 40s to low 50s (10 to 15 degrees above normal).
Monday through the week:
Big changes are coming beginning Monday. Monday, an upper level
trough from Canada will make its way into our area, bringing
significantly colder temperatures behind an Arctic cold front
that will drop temperatures 10 to 20 degrees. Wind gusts will pick
up to 30mph during the day Monday as the front moves through.
Models are in decent agreement that northeast Nebraska will see
light snow Monday morning as the system swings through. Any
accumulation looks light and less than an inch, and should stay
confined to northeast NE. Temperatures Monday will vary quite a
bit across the area with the front passing though. Highs in north
of I-80 will be in the low 20s to around 30 degrees, while south
of I-80 will mostly be in the mid 30s. Highs on Monday will be
occurring at midnight and temps will be dropping throughout the
day on Monday. Lows are in the teens and single digits on Monday
Temperatures on Tuesday will be the coldest of the week with the
highs on Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper teens to upper
20s. Winds will also be gusting up to 25 mph Tuesday morning
(especially in northeast ne) so wind chills will be in the single
digits to below zero for the Tuesday morning commute. Some
improvement is expected by Wednesday with highs ranging from 20
to 30 with much lighter winds. Thursday will continue to improve
with highs mainly in the 30s and dry conditions expected through
Aviation...(for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 636 PM CST Fri Dec 6 2019
VFR conditions will prevail at kofk, koma, and klnk through the
forecast period. Gusty south winds are forecast starting around
18z across all of eastern Nebraska and southwest Iowa. Some low
level wind shear at 2000 feet is possible between 11-13z at koma.