Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus61 kokx 250741 
afdokx

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
341 am EDT sun Aug 25 2019

Synopsis...
high pressure builds to the north before drifting east during
the first half of the work week. A cold front approaches
Wednesday and passes through the region Thursday. Another cold
front passes through late Friday into Saturday. High pressure
returns late Saturday.

&&

Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
the isolated showers that developed early this morning across
southern Connecticut and the lower Hudson Valley continue to
dissipate as they move off to the west. In their wake, clouds
will temporarily decrease before persistent east to northeast
flow results in increasing clouds after daybreak. In addition to
the clouds, there is a chance of light rain or drizzle during
the day, primarily across coastal areas. Precipitation amounts
are expected to remain light, with only a few hundredths of an
inch of rain at most. Across the interior, conditions are
expected to remain dry despite an increase in clouds. Afternoon
highs will remain several degrees below normal, in the mid 70s.

There is a high risk of rip current development at Atlantic Ocean
beaches today.

&&

Short term /6 PM this evening through 6 PM Monday/...
while any lingering light rain/drizzle comes to an end tonight,
low level moisture will linger into at least Monday morning as
easterly flow continues with high pressure remaining north of
the region. This will lead to continued mostly cloudy conditions
along the coast before more sunshine returns by Monday
afternoon. Temperatures on Monday will remain below normal,
with highs once again only topping out in the mid 70s.

There is a high risk of rip current development at Atlantic Ocean
beaches on Monday.

&&

Long term /Monday night through Saturday/...
ridging along the East Coast of the United States to start the
period will drift into the western Atlantic by Tuesday as a longwave
trough from near Alaska digs into the northern plains and upper
Midwest. This longwave trough will send a couple of cold fronts
through the region Thursday and Friday. The strongest front will be
late Wednesday night into Thursday. The upper trough weakens
Thursday with the flow becoming more zonal during Friday when
another, and weaker, cold front crosses the region.

The area will remain dry on Tuesday as high pressure remains in
control, with only an increase in high clouds ahead of the cold
front traversing the Great Lakes.

With the front Wednesday into Thursday both cape and
instability will be limited, so will have showers with only
isolated thunder possible. There are some timing differences in
the timing of the frontal passage, but sided with the faster
guidance. Another weak cold front passes through Friday into
early Saturday with just a slight chance of showers as there
will be little moisture or forcing with the front. With the
upper trough weakening have slowed the timing of this second
front.

After temperatures a few degrees below normal on Tuesday, near
normal temperatures are expected through the remainder of the long
term period, with highs generally in the low to mid 80s and
overnight lows falling into the 60s.

&&

Aviation /08z Sunday through Thursday/...
high pressure builds over northern New England through tonight.

Mainly VFR through the taf period. There could be brief MVFR
ceilings, mainly at the coast into the early afternoon. There is
also a chance of some sprinkles or pockets of light rain through
early evening.

NE winds 5-10 kt early this morning, will increase to 10-15 kt after
sunrise. Gusts up to 20 kt are likely with the highest chance
occurring for all terminals except kswf.

Outlook for 06z Monday through Thursday...
Sunday night...MVFR, mainly near the coast.
Mon...MVFR possible early, then VFR. NE gusts 15-20 kt along the
coast.
Tue...VFR.
Wed...MVFR possible. Showers possible with isolated thunderstorms.
Thu...VFR.

&&

Marine...
a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the ocean waters through
Monday as strong northeasterly flow will result in winds gusting to
25 to 30 kt and seas building to 4 to 6 feet. While winds will
gradually diminish during the day on Monday, seas will likely remain
elevated into Monday night.

The flow the weakens into midweek as high pressure retreats off the
New England coast and a cold front approaches. With the approach of
the front winds also gradually shift to the southeast and south. Sub
Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected by Tuesday and continuing into
Thursday.

&&

Hydrology...
no hydrologic impacts are anticipated through the end of the
week.

&&

Tides/coastal flooding...
a prolonged period of easterly flow will gradually increase tide
levels into mid week. Localized minor coastal flooding is possible
with Monday evening high tides along the South Shore back bays of
Queens and Nassau counties, with the threat of at least isolated
minor coastal flooding continuing during the evening high tide
cycles through the mid week period.

&&

Equipment...
NYC National oceanic and atmospheric administration weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air.

&&

Okx watches/warnings/advisories...
CT...none.
New York...high rip current risk from 8 am EDT this morning through this
evening for nyz075-080-081-178-179.
New Jersey...none.
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT Monday for anz350-353-355.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Feb/met
near term...Feb
short term...Feb
long term...Feb/met
aviation...ds

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations