Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kokx 182354
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New York New York
754 PM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019
high pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the
weekend. A cold front will approach on Monday, and pass slowly
east on Tuesday. A warm front may approach on Wednesday.
Near term /through Thursday/...
clouds have cleared much of the area as an upper shortwave
moving through the western portion of a departing trough was
moving south of eastern Long Island. Mostly cloudy to cloudy
conditions remain across the Twin Forks and into southern New
London County Connecticut. Clearing will continue as the
shortwave moves south and the upper trough moves slowly east.
The center of sfc high over New England will settle south
across the area by morning.
NE winds will diminish as the night progresses. These diminish
winds along with clear skies will allow temperatures to fall
as sfc heat radiates back to space.
Overnight lows will range from around 40s in the normally
interior colder spots, to the lower 50s in and around NYC.
Some river fog is possible across the interior as these cold and
calm conditions are realized.
There is a high risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches
due to long period swells from distant Hurricane Humberto into
Short term /Thursday night through 6 PM Thursday/...
strong subsidence settles in across the area Thursday and
Thursday night as ridge builds behind trough/developing closed
low over the Atlantic to our east. Clear skies expected.
The center of high pressure appears to settle south and west of
the region by Thursday night. Initial NE winds will lighten,
and seabreezes are possible during the afternoon hours near the
coast. Winds then become more westerly at night around the high
located to our southwest.
Temperatures will rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s Thursday,
then fall into the 40s and 50s Thursday night per MOS blend and
There is a high risk of rip currents at Atlantic Ocean beaches on
Thursday due to long period swells from distant Hurricane
Long term /Thursday night through Wednesday/...
high pressure will dominate into the weekend, with a warming
trend, then increasing humidity going into Sunday as a return
SW-S flow develops, which should result in patchy inland fog Sat
night into early Sunday morning. A back door cold front
dropping into New England looks like it will remain to our
northeast. High temps in the upper 70s/lower 80s on Fri should
be slightly warmer on Sat/Sunday, with lower/mid 80s expected.
Nighttime lows with light winds/mostly clear skies.Dry air mass
should range from the 50s to lower 60s Fri night/Sat night, then
in the 60s throughout Sunday night.
A high rip current risk should continue at the ocean beaches
into Fri evening, and a high surf advy may be needed for Fri as
well. Surf heights on Fri should approach 7-8 ft as swells build
to at least 7 ft and increase in period to at least 13 sec.
A slow moving cold front will approach on Mon, with chance for
showers northwest of NYC Mon afternoon, then throughout Mon night into
Tue night. There are some indications that a wave of low
pressure could develop along the front and enhance rainfall on
Tue as well as bring chance of tstms, but with the usual
inherent uncertainty on chance of occurrence, timing, and
location at such long lead times.
Aviation /00z Thursday through Monday/...
high pressure remains over the region.
North/NE winds 10 to 15 kt for NYC Metro terminals through
around 04z, otherwise north/NE 5 to 10 kt winds through Thursday
morning push. Winds veer se/S late afternoon into evening push.
... Metro enhanced aviation weather support...
Detailed information, including hourly taf wind component fcsts,
can be found at:
Kjfk taf comments: timing of winds veering to S/southeast may be off
by 1 to 2 hrs.
Klga taf comments: timing of winds veering to S/southeast may be off
by 1 to 2 hrs.
Kewr taf comments: timing of winds veering to southeast may be off by
1 to 2 hrs.
Kteb taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Khpn taf comments: no unscheduled amendments expected.
Kisp taf comments: timing of winds veering to S/southeast may be off
by 1 to 2 hrs.
Outlook for 00z Thursday through Monday...
Thursday afternoon through Sunday...VFR.
Monday...VFR am. Chance MVFR in -shra and SW gusts 20kt PM.
Small Craft Advisory has been extended until 8 PM Friday. Rough building ocean
seas of 5-7 ft should continue through then, and possibly into
Fri night, as long period swells from distant Hurricane Humberto
begin to arrive from the S attm, then from the southeast on Fri.
In addition, wind gusts could be around 25 kt into this evening
offshore on the ocean waters.
Minimal Small Craft Advisory criteria may also be possible on Mon in S-SW flow
ahead of an approaching cold front, with wind gusts close to 25
kt on the ocean and South Shore bays, and ocean seas close to 5
no significant hydrologic impacts through the weekend.
NYC National oceanic and atmospheric administration weather radio station kwo35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
New York...high rip current risk through Friday evening for nyz075-080-
Marine...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for anz350-353-355.
short term...precipitable water