Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 230004
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
704 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019
a slowly moving and weak front will pass through central Oklahoma
this evening and weaken further and stall near the Red River area
overnight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may form along it,
mainly south of the okc area into southern Oklahoma this evening.
A period of MVFR ceilings may occur over the southern half of
Oklahoma around sunrise for a few hours. Otherwise VFR conditions
Previous discussion... /issued 326 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019/
.Showers/storms possible with a front this evening/tonight...
For this afternoon/evening, a cold front (currently across
northern oklahoma), will continue to move southward. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the front.
Modest instability (mlcape ~1500 j/kg) and shear (effective bulk
shear ~30-40+ knots) may result in some strong to severe
thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall will also be possible with
precipitable water values >2.0".
Ahead of the front, additional convection will occur in the warm
sector across southern Oklahoma and adjacent parts of North Texas
within an area of warm air advection/insentropic ascent.
The cold front is expected to stall along the Red River tomorrow
with a continued chance for showers/storms across southern
Oklahoma and North Texas. In response to Lee cyclogenesis, the
cold front will lift back to the north Monday night into Tuesday
as a warm front. Widespread elevated convection is expected as the
warm front lifts to the north Tuesday morning.
By Wednesday, a shortwave trough is forecast to dig into the
Midwest. The attendant cold front will enter northern Oklahoma
with a chance for showers/storms. Similar to the previous front,
this cold front will stall and quickly lift back to the north on
Thursday with a continued chance for showers/storms.
By Friday, the closed-low across the southwest U.S. Is forecast
to open up and eject into the plains. A dryline may develop and
move into western Oklahoma with this system. Warm and breezy
conditions, combined with low relative humidity, may result in
elevated fire weather conditions across the west (behind the
dryline). Ahead of the dryline, there will be chance for
showers/storms across the eastern half of the state. The chance
for showers/storms may persist into Saturday as well with a plume
of moisture on the western periphery of the mid-level ridge.
Overall, warm and unseasonably humid weather will continue
through the forecast period (which is in agreement with the CPC
6-10 day outlook) with frequent probabilities for showers/storms.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 65 83 68 85 / 30 10 40 50
Hobart OK 64 87 69 87 / 0 20 40 40
Wichita Falls Texas 71 87 70 89 / 30 40 40 40
gage OK 56 87 65 89 / 0 0 20 20
Ponca City OK 59 82 67 85 / 0 10 30 50
Durant OK 74 89 71 88 / 50 40 30 50