Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus64 koun 171944
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
244 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2019
area of isolated to scattered showers/storms that developed around
mid-day in parts of central and south central OK will continue to
shift east of the fa the rest of this afternoon as the upper low
continues to slowly move away from the region. Additional showers
and thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the fa later
tonight into Tuesday. Storms that develop west of the area are
expected to move east approaching and moving into portions of the
fa late tonight into early Tuesday. However, a few of the models
show most of this activity ending or at least decreasing in
coverage before or shortly after moving into the fa, so widespread
activity is not anticipated for tonight.
Higher chances for showers/storms will be Tuesday afternoon and
night as a shortwave moves across The Rockies into the Central
Plains. Convection is expected to develop again Tuesday
afternoon/evening west of the area in the High Plains and along a
dryline. This activity will likely develop into one or move
thunderstorm complexes that moves across portions of the fa. Another
area of potential storm development Tuesday afternoon/evening will
be near a boundary in northwest OK into portions of Kansas. Strong to severe
storms will be possible once again Tuesday afternoon and night.
Depending on what happens Tuesday night/early Wednesday, strong to
severe storms could be possible again Wednesday afternoon/evening in
southeast/S portions of the fa near a boundary that is currently forecast
to be near the Red River at that time.
It currently looks like much of the area will remain dry for most of
Thursday, although any weak disturbance in the flow that the models
can not resolve at this time along with heating may result in some
showers/storms. The upper pattern then shifts to SW flow late this
week into the weekend. Showers/storms will be possible across at
least portions of the fa Friday into early next week.
Strong to severe storms will continue to be a possibility into early
next week. Heavy rain/flooding will also continue to be a concern
this week into early next week, especially in those locations that
are still or nearly saturated.
Preliminary point temps/pops...
Oklahoma City OK 65 88 67 87 / 10 20 60 20
Hobart OK 66 90 66 90 / 20 30 30 10
Wichita Falls Texas 67 91 70 93 / 10 20 30 10
gage OK 64 87 61 84 / 30 30 50 10
Ponca City OK 63 85 65 83 / 0 20 60 20
Durant OK 68 90 71 91 / 10 10 50 30