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fxus63 kpah 172245 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
545 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Short term...(tonight through Monday night)
issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

A broad area of southwest low-level winds will keep hot and humid
weather intact through the short term. Heat indices will peak
between 100 and 105 each afternoon. Diurnal thunderstorms should
be mainly isolated given the lack of forcing. A 500 mb high will
strengthen somewhat over the Southern Plains and lower Mississippi
Valley, keeping the cold front at Bay.

In the immediate near term, a few thunderstorms will persist
through late afternoon along an outflow boundary that extends
from kowb west toward kpah. The boundary is becoming difficult to
locate in visible satellite imagery, and it should dissipate by

The next chance of storms will be on Sunday, mainly from midday
through the afternoon. Some of the cams models develop a
convective complex over the plains tonight, then bring it eastward
into southern Illinois and southeast MO around midday Sunday. These
models indicate the system will be decaying, and they dissipate
the convection as it reaches the lower Ohio Valley in the
afternoon. The 12z arw and nmm are two examples of this scenario.
Given the time of day, it is likely isolated new storms would
develop along any outflow boundaries from the decaying MCS.

Any convection on Monday would be tied to diurnal heating since
the 500 mb high will be strengthening over our region. A slight
chance of storms will be mentioned in the forecast. Afternoon
highs will be in the lower to mid 90s. Dew points will average in
the lower to mid 70s, which is not quite as high as our most
recent oppressive heat event.

Long term...(tuesday through saturday)
issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

Tuesday will be an oppressively hot and humid day, with heat indices
in the triple digits area wide, and near advisory levels in the
south. We're sandwiched between a weak boundary to the east, and
high pressure to the north. Some isolated PM storm chances will be
about the only relief from the heat that day and night.

On Wednesday, it'll start out just as sticky, but clouds and an
incoming front and its passage will be a game changer as we
transition to a different airmass. Northwest flow energy will drive
a cold front across the region during the day, and pops will spike
along/with the front's entry/passage. The front makes its way to the
south and east Wednesday night and Thursday, as we transition to
northerlies that will begin to draw down our dew points and yield a
little cool off in temperatures as well.

The week is poised to end in this much more comfortable airmass,
with dew points falling into the mid 60s and temperatures likewise
making the 80s/60s for highs/lows to close out the week and begin
the weekend. Storm chances Thursday thru Saturday similarly wane,
but do not disappear necessarily altogether. We maintain a small
chance for heat of the day potential, mainly along our southern
counties, closer to the by then stalled frontal boundary.


issued at 545 PM CDT Sat Aug 17 2019

VFR conditions through Sunday. Light south winds tonight. South-southwest 5 to
10 kts with just a few gusts 15 to 20 kts Sunday.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...

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