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fxus63 kpah 061745 
afdpah

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
1145 am CST Fri Dec 6 2019

Update...
issued at 1145 am CST Fri Dec 6 2019

The aviation section has been updated for the 18z taf issuance.

&&

Short term...(today through saturday)
issued at 250 am CST Fri Dec 6 2019

A shortwave trough, stretching from the Great Lakes to Texas, has
had two low pressure centers form. One by Lake Michigan, which
will pass north of the quad state region but has an associated
cold front along the trough. The other, located along the border
of Oklahoma and Texas, is providing the light showers in the area
tonight. This system will drop to the southeast towards the Gulf
of Mexico tomorrow. High pressure to the east is contributing to
the light southerly winds and seasonally warm temperatures tonight
with lows in the mid 40s.

Light showers are moving across the area tonight with a trace to
a few hundredths of an inch of rain. During the day Friday, a
more organized band of showers will form along the front with the
front moving towards the southeast. Rain accumulations will be on
the order of a tenth of an inch. Behind the front winds will
shift to a northerly direction with wind gusts on the order of 15
kts possible for much of the quad state during the afternoon.
Temperatures will be much cooler Thursday night with lows below
freezing for areas north of the Ohio River and in the mid to upper
30s to the south.

On Saturday, high pressure in the northern plains moves towards
Iowa and will shift winds over the quad state to a more easterly
to southeasterly direction. Western Kentucky and far southeastern
Missouri will hold onto mostly cloudy skies while towards the
north cloud cover will diminish to partly cloudy to mostly sunny
conditions.

Long term...(saturday night through thursday)
issued at 250 am CST Fri Dec 6 2019

No significant changes to the long term portion of the forecast.
Will utilize a blend of the 00z GFS/European model (ecmwf) runs and their ensemble
mean solutions.

Dry weather Saturday night into most of Sunday as a high pressure
ridge moves east, allowing for return flow, and moderating
temperatures. There may be a little light rain or drizzle late
Sunday afternoon west Kentucky into southwest in. Low confidence call.
Sunday night into Monday, rain chances will gradually increase as
upper level forcing increases along with continued low level
warm/moist advection. Cold front will move through Monday night,
with rain chances continuing. Cold air will push in behind the
front. Will continue to monitor for a brief change over (rain/snow)
chance late Monday night into Tuesday morning before the moisture
pushes out of the area. Still a low confidence call at this point
and not too concerned with it. Nbm seems to be holding on to precip
chances Tuesday way too long. We are more aggressive drying things
out.

Strong high pressure will build in for the rest of Tuesday,
persisting through Thursday, resulting in dry but cold weather,
below normal temperatures.

&&

Aviation...
issued at 1145 am CST Fri Dec 6 2019

North winds may gust up to 20kts at times this afternoon mainly
over the western half of the region, including kmvn, kcgi and
kpah. Otherwise, the primary concern to aviation is an area of
lower MVFR ceilings that has just arrived at kmvn and will push
southeast over the entire region this afternoon. Confidence in the
duration of the MVFR ceilings is not great, but it appears that
most of the area should clear out this evening. At kpah and over
much of west Kentucky, the low clouds may not exit until sometime
Saturday. Another area of possibly IFR level clouds could impact
the area later tonight and into Saturday as well. Confidence is
low, but did throw in a few or scattered low deck to hint at the
possibility.

&&

Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.
&&

$$

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