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fxus63 kpah 192320 
afdpah

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
620 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Update...
issued at 607 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Updated for 00z aviation forecast discussion.

&&

Short term...(tonight through Wednesday night)
issued at 120 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

After isolated mainly heat of day chances diminish this evening,
all eyes turn to the amplified severe storm risk tmrw. Cams are
increasingly hitting upon northwest flow energy developing a
complex of storms over Iowa/nrn Illinois late tonight, and diving it
southeastward across central Illinois/in tmrw PM/evening. The new swody2
outlooks much of our downstream area in slight risk, with a few
northeast counties on the far end of the enhanced risk zone that
stretches across central ptns IL/in. Large hail/damaging winds
will be the primary svr wx threats.

After that, we return to a diurnal pop Wednesday, followed by a
cold front's approach/passage that begins Wednesday night. As a
result, pops actually increase Wednesday night as the front moves
in, although the evening heat hours may be the best 6 hour period
for convective amplification along the boundary during the short
term portion of the forecast.

Sweltering heat/humidity will make each day a potential day of
triple digit and/or near advisory level heat indices. Of course,
convective clouds/debris may impede these values for portions of
the day. For this writing, we'll continue to highlight this
potential hazard via the severe weather potential statement and sps, as well as social media.

Long term...(thursday through monday)
issued at 120 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

The ensembles/model blend has consistently indicated a front's
approach and passage during the Wednesday night-Thursday time
frame, so pops have been peaking with it on Thursday for the past
24-48 hours. Today's runs yield increasing confidence in this
solution, with peak pops this week into the likely cats on
Thursday.

The front does tend to hang up upon its move thru the fa, so a
condinuation/lingering of said pops will remain forecast almost
daily for the remainder of the forecast, although these will be
more diurnally fueled. Due to the boundary's presence to the near
south/east, that's where our pops will be highest thru the period,
tapering to lower pops north and west.

We'll see temps begin to moderate as early as Thursday, with 80s
returning for highs and even lower 80s slated for the ensuing 3
days. Lows, mirroring dew points, will be in the upper 60s/around
70 Thursday night, then fall back into the 60s, with even lower to
mid 60s in the north, the ensuing 3 nights.

&&

Aviation...
issued at 620 PM CDT Mon Aug 19 2019

Scattered storms to our north are flirting with kmvn so will
utilize a thunderstorms in the vicinity for a few hours. Otherwise anticipate a quiet
overnight, until storm chances ramp up again tmrw morning to our
north. That'll lend toward some downsream blow off mid or high
cloud incoming, with diurnally driven bases and storm chances
returning to all terminals again during the day tmrw. There are
still questions as to when and exactly what terminals will be
impacted.

&&

Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.

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