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000 
FXUS63 KPAH 052122
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY 
Issued by National Weather Service Louisville KY 
322 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday) 
Issued at 300 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

Tonight, the east side of an upper ridge will stretch from coast to 
coast over the CONUS. A shortwave over the panhandle of Oklahoma 
will continue propagating east-southeast along the upper flow. At 
the surface, between the cyclonic rotation of the low under the 
shortwave and west of high pressure over the southeastern United 
States, Gulf moisture will push north, up the Mississippi River 
Valley. By 6z tonight, precipitable water values push above 1 inch 
in southern Missouri. Surface convergence adds to the forcing of 
moisture rich air ahead of the front moving southeast, on the 
northern side of the shortwave. This will increase rain chances over 
the Quad-State region as the system moves east overnight into 
tomorrow.

Tomorrow behind the front, a north wind will move in with the higher 
surface pressure. Skies will be slow to clear and will help keep 
high temperatures in the low to mid 50s, about 10 degrees cooler 
than today. Rain will come to an end during the early afternoon as 
the system continues to move southeast away from the region, and 
when all is said and done, rainfall of around a quarter to half of 
an inch is expected in southeastern Missouri. This amount will taper 
off to the north.  

.LONG TERM...(Friday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 315 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

After the system moves out on Friday, the region remains uneventful 
through Sunday as upper flow tries to become more zonal. 
Temperatures will be mild with highs in the 50s for the most part. 
Agreement is strong here between the long range models.

Sunday night into Monday, things begin to get interesting as an 
upper trough moves east from the western Plains. Ahead of the trough 
a deep low with a tight pressure gradient will run into a tight 
gradient high over the Atlantic coast. This will drive strong 
southern winds ahead of a forming cold front. These winds will drive 
highs into the 60s on Monday. 

Monday night, the surface low is expected to be over Michigan with 
its trailing cold front sweeping south back through the Dallas, 
Texas area. Using the moisture rich Gulf air, shower chances are 
expected to build over the Quad-States until after the front passes 
the region and precipitation ends on Tuesday.

The details have been all over the place over the last few days in 
the long term models. This system is likely to change in 
precipitation amounts, type, and timing with the coming forecasts, 
but for now, it is likely that any remaining precipitation behind 
the front will fall frozen. 

For Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, behind the front, high 
pressure will move over the region and finally clear skies for 
Wednesday and Thursday, but this won't help temperatures to get out 
of the 30s or low 40s.  

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1107 AM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

Mid/high clouds will stream eastward into the region through the
evening hours. Light shower activity looks to mainly be focused
during the overnight and Friday morning hours, with southern half
of region likely to see better coverage (KPAH/KCGI). Ceilings 
will lower toward sunrise and become MVFR across at least western 
half of region during the mornings hours. There may even be a 
period of IFR cigs for a few areas. Guidance is also suggesting 
lower visibilities, possibly into MVFR category during the 
morning hours.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

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