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000 
FXUS63 KPAH 131955
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
255 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tuesday night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

A weak wind shift will enter into the northern part of the CWFA
next 24 hours, muted by high pressure that will be the dominant
weather feature. Dry weather will continue through Monday night.
The temperature forecast will follow typical local fall bias. We
will err on the high side of guidance during the day (with sun), 
and lower at night. We used the NBM for temps through Monday night
as it picks up on this. Tuesday through Tuesday night, a sharp 
upper level trof will move from the northern Plains to the Great 
Lakes. An associated cold front will move through Tuesday evening.
Moist advection and increasing instability with the front means a
chance of showers and thunderstorms. We do not anticipated
significant QPF, or mass coverage. But the trend in the models is 
such that adjusting PoPs up a bit is warranted. The time frame of 
best chances will be Tuesday afternoon and evening. The activity 
will depart our eastern counties overnight. Also, we upped winds 
over the NBM forecast for Tuesday night in the wake of the front.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

Surface high pressure will be in place across the middle Mississippi 
and Ohio valleys for mid to late week.  Dry conditions and clear to 
mostly clear skies will prevail.   North to northwest winds on 
Wednesday into Thursday will keep temperatures below seasonal 
normals.  A return of southerly winds late Thursday into Friday as 
the high moves east will result in readings warming back to seasonal 
values.

With the high moving east of our region, models show a weakening 
cold front moving toward and across our region late Friday night 
into Saturday.  This feature will give us small chances of showers 
and a few thunderstorms.  A surface low and deepening upper level 
trof over the Rockies/Central Plains will approach the middle and 
upper Mississippi valley Saturday night into Sunday. Increasing 
moisture ahead of the system will result in gradually increasing 
chances for showers and thunderstorms late Saturday night and 
especially Sunday.  Initially there are some timing differences with 
the onset of decent precipitation chances, and thus kept pops in the 
slight category Saturday night.  Better model agreement occurs by 
Sunday and beyond the current forecast period, so chances will 
increase west to east on Sunday. South flow will keep temperatures 
above normal through the weekend despite increasing clouds. 

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sun Oct 13 2019

VFR conditions through Monday. Southwest winds up to 10 kts this
afternoon will become light tonight through Monday morning.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.
&&

$$

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