Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus63 kpah 230812
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
312 am CDT Mon Sep 23 2019
Short term...(today through Wednesday night)
issued at 311 am CDT Mon Sep 23 2019
Surface analysis indicates the cold front is still northwest of
our County Warning Area as of 3am, with scattered showers continuing to develop
ahead of it. Areas of southern Illinois and southwest Indiana,
particularly up along the I-64 corridor, received some beneficial
rain (0.25-0.75"). Unfortunately, this doesn't look to be the case
further south, with light quantitative precipitation forecast expected as the showers progress
across the area into the morning hours. The front should clear our
southeast counties around midday. Thus any lingering showers in
west Kentucky this morning, should end by early afternoon.
Cooler and drier air will be filtering into the area through the
day, with dewpoints dropping into the 50s. Highs will be slightly
above normal in the low to mid 80s. Tonight it will actually feel
like fall, with lows dipping into the low to mid 50s, as surface
high pressure settles southward across the lower Ohio Valley.
The aforementioned surface high will push east on Tuesday, with
light southerly flow developing by later in the day/overnight.
This will advect in a warmer airmass along with low level
moisture increasing, especially as we get into Wednesday. There is
the potential for some shower activity Tuesday night, mainly in
On Wednesday, another cold front approaches the region. Current
thinking continues to indicate that the highest coverage of
precipitation will be Wednesday evening/night. On average, quantitative precipitation forecast
amounts look to be fairly light. However, with precipitable water values
increasing to near 2 inches, we could potentially see some heavier
rainfall amounts. At this time, this appears most likely across
the southern half of the area. We will see. When in drought, it is
hard to get out of it.
Long term...(thursday through sunday)
issued at 311 am CDT Mon Sep 23 2019
The cold front will be just south of the pah forecast area Thursday
morning. A few showers may linger in southern portions of west
Kentucky and southeast Missouri Thursday morning, then surface high
pressure over the middle Mississippi Valley will push the front
farther south. The surface high will move off to our east, and weak
mid/upper level ridging will keep our region dry into Friday. By
Friday night, models push a cold front toward our region. There is
some model disagreement on just how far south the front will make it
and whether it will give portions of our region precipitation
chances. The mid/upper level ridging is fairly weak at this point,
and went with some slight chances of showers and thunderstorms for
our far northwest counties late Friday night into Saturday morning.
Kept the rest of the weekend dry for now, but confidence is fairly
low right now with some models indicating the upper high/ridge will
strengthen, and others indicating the front making a little more
North to northeast flow at the surface will keep temperatures
Thursday fairly pleasant and near seasonal. The surface high off to
our east by Friday will bring a return of southerly flow.
Temperatures will quickly return to well above normal readings
Friday through Sunday, along with increasing humidity.
issued at 1157 PM CDT sun Sep 22 2019
A cold front will sweep through the region during this taf period,
with the wind shift (sustained 12 knots or less) from southwesterly
to northwesterly starting just before daybreak Mon in the northwest
through early afternoon in the southeastern part of the region.
Ahead of this front, scattered showers are expected, lingering in
the Wabash valley until mid morning. MVFR cigs are expected along
this boundary, with some possible brief IFR cigs mainly in southern
Illinois. Rapidly improving conditions are forecast for most of the region
from late morning on, with the pennyrile region of Kentucky following