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fxus63 kpah 221151 
afdpah

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
551 am CST Fri Nov 22 2019

Update...
issued at 550 am CST Fri Nov 22 2019

Updated aviation discussion for 12z tafs.

&&

Short term...(today through Sunday night)
issued at 330 am CST Fri Nov 22 2019

The main forecast concern in the near term is the lingering rain
this morning, followed by another chance for light rain tonight
into Saturday. Forecast confidence is higher than average with
good model agreement.

A cold front was in the process of clearing our far southeastern
counties in western Kentucky as of 3 am. Rain continued to stream
along and north of this boundary through much of the region.
However, the back edge of the rain shield was already evident from
south central Illinois into south central Missouri. This back
edge should continue to make steady southeastward progress,
clearing the entire region by mid to late morning. Left behind
will be plenty of cloud cover, though some breaks are certainly
possible across the northern half of the region by afternoon.

The dry weather will be short lived as an upper low over Colorado
moves east into Missouri Saturday morning, while a surface low
center tracks northeast from southern Texas into the Tennessee
Valley. As this system approaches, light rain is forecast to
spread into southwestern portions of the area this evening,
continuing into the rest of the area overnight. Rainfall totals
will be very light compared to last night's event, with amounts
ranging from around one tenth to as much as one quarter inch. Most
of the rain should taper off by noon Saturday, but low clouds and
a very light rain or drizzle may linger into the afternoon, mainly
across the eastern half of the area. Save any outdoor activities
for Sunday. Saturday is a great day to sleep in, if you can.

Dry weather will return Saturday night and continue through the
latter half of the weekend as northwest flow develops in the wake
of the departing low and surface high pressure builds east from
the Southern Plains. Temperatures will be quite cool the next few
days as highs remain in the 40s. Highs should recover back into
the lower 50s in most areas with more sunshine on Sunday. After
lows tonight in the middle 30s to lower 40s, lows Saturday night
will drop to just below freezing, then recover slightly into the
middle 30s Sunday night.

Long term...(monday through thursday)
issued at 330 am CST Fri Nov 22 2019

There is reasonably high confidence that Monday should be mild and
dry, and that a disturbance will bring some more rain to the region
Monday night into Tuesday. However, beyond that the forecast gets
rather muddled despite a strong consensus for upper ridging over the
Mississippi Valley Wednesday through Friday.

Managed to keep Wednesday dry with a ridge aloft building over the
region and high pressure entrenched at the surface. The ridge may
slip eastward enough Wednesday night to allow a mid-level wave to
bring rain back northeast across the area beginning Wednesday night
and continuing through Thanksgiving. This would presumably tap some
low-level warm advection, but the surface high should remain in
place across the region. Then as Lee troughing develops over
Colorado, a warm front of sorts may bring more rain to the area
Friday.

Confidence is quite low for the Thanksgiving Holiday and Friday, so
we capped pops at chance levels. Quantitative precipitation forecast is way too high, given the
situation. Our temperature forecast is also likely too cool
Wednesday night and Thursday night which results in a mention of
snow over portions of southeast Missouri and southern Illinois. This
should be an aberration with more sanity hopefully making its way
back into the forecast on the day shift.

&&

Aviation...
issued at 550 am CST Fri Nov 22 2019

Ceilings will continue to improve into the MVFR category as rain
tapers off from the northwest through mid morning. Thereafter,
MVFR ceilings should persist through the afternoon across the
southern half of the area (kcgi, kpah), while VFR conditions may
accompany some breaks in the stratus over the northern half
(kmvn, kevv, kowb). However, conditions will deteriorate again
tonight as light rain spreads across the area, especially after
midnight. In fact, ceilings may be near IFR again by daybreak
Saturday. North-northeast winds around 10 knots today will decrease to 5 to 10
knots tonight.

&&

Pah watches/warnings/advisories...
Illinois...none.
MO...none.
In...none.
Kentucky...none.
&&

$$

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