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fxus63 kpah 182327 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Paducah Kentucky
627 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

The aviation section has been updated for the 00z taf issuance.


Short term...(tonight through Thursday night)
issued at 227 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

A quasi stationary front will remain over southeast Missouri,
higher pressure into our eastern counties. We should remain
dry, with an uptick in clouds Thursday. Current satellite
supports this, with clouds moving west from the Appalachians, and
cumulus as far west as central Kentucky. Otherwise for tonight, just some
typical September patchy ground fog with mostly clear skies. We
will go on the high side of guidance for Thursday, a persistence

Long term...(friday through wednesday)
issued at 227 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019


The main concern in the extended period will be increasing chances
for precipitation beginning Friday and continuing into early next
week. The Stout Ridge that's been acting as a weather deflector will
begin to shift to the east. This will allow southwesterly flow and
moisture to increase ahead of an approaching disturbance from the
central/northern plains.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible beginning Friday in the Ozark
foothills of southeast Missouri. However much of the region will remain dry
through Saturday. Better precipitation chances arrive Sunday into
Monday as a cold front works its way southeast into the region.
Moisture from the remnants of tropical storm Imelda could enhance
rainfall amounts across southeast Missouri and S Illinois, where rainfall
totals of 1-1.5+ inches are possible. Unfortunately, the front
appears to lose upper level support, and rainfall totals trend down
to near nothing in our southeastern counties in the southern
pennyrile of Kentucky.

In the wake of the cold front, more zonal upper-level flow will set
up across the region. Models are hinting at weak disturbances within
this flow, but at this time confidence is too low to have anything
more than isolated pops. Temperatures will remain above average,
with highs in the middle to upper 80s.


issued at 627 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

The only concern to aviation this cycle will be fog potential,
mainly over southeast Missouri and southern Illinois, including
kcgi and kmvn. Strong mixing today, especially east of those
sites, should prevent fog formation, but some patchy and or
shallow fog will be possible at kcgi and kmvn. Otherwise, the
latest guidance is indicating an increase in cloud cover in the
4-8kft layer as a weak surface trough moves west into the area
through the day Thursday. Some periodic ceiling conditions will be
possible at kevv and kowb.


Pah watches/warnings/advisories...

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