Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kpbz 240937
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
537 am EDT Sat Aug 24 2019
dry, pleasant weather is expected through the weekend. Rain chances
return on Tuesday with a cold front approach.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
with high pressure centered over southern Ontario relatively cool and
dry air will continue under northeasterly flow. A comfortable day can
be expected with seasonally cool temperatures, dewpoints in the
lower 50s, and plenty of sunshine.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Sunday night/...
dry and pleasant weather with seasonally cool temperatures will
continue through the weekend as high pressure remains the dominant
Long term /Monday through Friday/...
a warming, moistening trend is expected early/mid next week as the
ridge axis moves east and return flow commences. Southwesterly flow
aloft will increase ahead of a deepening upper low across the
northern US plains and Manitoba/Ontario region of Canada.
Precipitation is possible late Monday night into Tuesday as a weak
shortwave and associated warm front move across. However, the main
show will be later on Tuesday into Wednesday. Despite some timing
differences among the global models, confidence is high with the
passage of a cold front sometime on Wednesday, followed by drier and
more pleasant weather late week as high pressure builds into the
Aviation /10z Saturday through Wednesday/...
surface high pressure will support VFR conditions through the period.
With dry air and 5-10kt winds across much of the area this morning,
fog is not expected at most sites. However, isolated calm wind along
with clear sky has allowed boundary layer decoupling with resulting
IFR fog at lbe and mgw. Given this, have added IFR visible through dawn
for those sites only. Fog is not currently expected at other
terminals, but may be possible with further radiational cooling.
high pressure will maintain VFR conditions through the weekend, with
restrictions returning Tuesday with a cold front.