Scientific Forecaster Discussion
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 141843 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 243 PM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Dry, seasonable weather will continue until a cold front brings showers and breezy conditions to the region on Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... High pressure is forecasted to center over the Ohio River Valley tonight, scattered clouds from the remnants of weak cold front will slowly dissipated. With strong radiational cooling, and where wind dies completely, patchy frost may form; most likely near I-80. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As a strong upper-level low north of Lake Superior lifts northeast Tuesday, a new trough is anticipated to track across Alberta and into the Upper- Midwest. This system is expected to deepen near Lake Michigan as height levels swing into phase. Ahead of this system, southerly flow and warm air advection will keep the temperature slightly above the climatological average. As the front races into Ohio early Wednesday morning, the pressure change in our region may reach 7 to 10 mb in 6hrs; as a result, strong wind gusts should prevail before the front approaches AND after. Models continue to maintain wind gusts for the ridges near Wind Advisory criteria; however, confidence at this early stage is not sufficient to raise headlines. Based on model soundings, the lack of upper-level instability should omit the chance of thunder accompanying Wednesday's front. Due to the swift movement of this entire system, rainfall totals should remain manageable; 0.50 inches on average. Once the front exits Wednesday afternoon, lake-enhanced and upslope showers should linger near I-80/Laurel Highlands into Thursday as NW flow prevails. With a strong pressure gradient, breezy conditions are forecasted to continue into Thursday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure is expected to build across the Great Lakes Friday, dry and quiet conditions are expected to prevail. With a wind shift from the south and prompting warm advection, the temperature should lean above the climatological average for the weekend. && .AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Dry air on the flank of the broad and deep srn Canada low wl maintain VFR through Tuesday. A reinforcing cold front is progged to cross the region this aftn/eve, resulting in a WSHFT to the W-NW and few to locally bkn strato CU. Deep mixing coincident with peak heating will allow for gusts up to 20 kt this aftn, both ahead of and behind FROPA. .Outlook... Restrictions and gusty sfc wind are likely Wed as strong low pres crosses the Great Lakes. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None.