Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kpbz 180807
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
407 am EDT Tue Jun 18 2019
periodic showers will continue through the week as a frontal boundary
remains stalled in the region and several disturbances cross the
upper Ohio Valley.
Near term /until 6 PM this evening/...
overnight shortwave will allow for minor height falls today. This
will work to suppress the deep moisture further south and also the
path of the next shortwave trough, which is expected to cross WV this
afternoon. This setup will hasten the shift of higher pops southward
today, and likely focus the flooding risk further south. Have left
in pops across the entire area, although shower chances/coverage will
be greatly reduced in the I-80 corridor.
Short term /6 PM this evening through Thursday/...
expect several more shortwave troughs to pass through the relatively
fast upper levels through the period, with the most potent of these
troughs approaching Thu. Expect chances for showers and storms to
persist with this pattern. Maxima will continue to run a tad under
seasonal average, and a bit warmer than average for minima.
Long term /Thursday night through Monday/...
it now appears that, after the passage of the Thu low pressure
system, that we may have a brief break in the wet weather for much of
Fri and possibly Sat before moisture returns atop a building ern-
Continental U.S. Ridge sun into the start of the week.
The building ridge will suggest a return to seasonal temperature, if
not a few degrees warmer through the end of the long term.
Aviation /08z Tuesday through Saturday/...
once the area of rainfall exits, low clouds will remain. Have
decided on a general MVFR forecast through the morning hours, with
some lower IFR clouds possible.
Some improvement is expected this afternoon, thanks to the
lower/deeper moisture being suppressed further south. Still will
need to keep in the mention of showers/storms, although coverage
should be reduced with the best lift south of all ports this
periodic restrictions are possible through the week as a frontal
zone sags over the region and interacts with crossing disturbances to
produce frequent showers and storms.
Maryland...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for mdz001.
Ohio...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for ohz039>041-048>050-
PA...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for paz007-008-013>016-
WV...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for wvz001>004-012-021-