Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus61 kpbz 260243
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1043 PM EDT sun Aug 25 2019
rain chances return Monday night with an approaching cold front, with
the most widespread rain expected Tuesday night.
Near term /through Monday/...
no changes needed late this evening other than a quick update to
hourly temperatures to better forecast ongoing trends. Previous
high amplitude upper ridging will maintain dry and quiet
weather with seasonable temperature through much of Monday.
Thereafter, midwestern troughing will shunt moisture and shortwave
energy over the region for an increase precip. Chances.
Short term /Monday night through Wednesday night/...
specifically, closed low pressure that is projected to center over
northern Ontario will lift a warm front across the upr Ohio Valley on
Monday night and follow it with a cold front on Wednesday. Pops for
the period cumulate in likely numbers for the immediate approach and
passage of the front while temperature remains forecast very near the
Long term /Thursday through Sunday/...
for the latter half of the week and Holiday weekend, surface high
pressure under upper troughing should maintain generally dry weather
with only shortwave-dependent light rain chances. Temperature under
that pattern will be at, or below seasonal averages.
Aviation /03z Monday through Friday/...
eroding sfc high pres wl maintain VFR and light E, to se wind until
the approach of a shortwave trough late Monday.
restrictions are likely Tuesday and Wednesday with the approach and
passage of a cold front.