Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus66 kpdt 200849 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton or
149 am PDT Tue Aug 20 2019

Short through Thursday night...SW flow aloft will be
over the area for one more day resulting in hot afternoon
temperatures under mostly clear skies. High temperatures will be in
the 90s with 80s in the mountains. An upper level trough will
approach the area Wednesday and swing across the region Wednesday
night. This will move a strong cold front across the forecast area
late in the day into the evening. Main impacts from this front will
be a burst of gusty winds and a few rain showers. Winds could gust
in excess of 30 mph with the front and perhaps a bit stronger in a
few locations. However do not think there will be a prolonged Wind
Advisory event. Models are trending a little wetter with the front
and have at least some chance of showers over the entire forecast
area. Quantitative precipitation forecast amounts look light. Airmass does not appear to be
supportive of thunderstorms so have left mention of thunder out of
the forecast. By Thursday the upper trough is east of the area and a
cool northwest flow aloft takes over. Highs on Thursday will be in
the upper 70s to mid 80s in the lower elevations with upper 60s to
mid 70s in the mountains. It will be cool Thursday night with lows
50-55 in the lower elevations and upper 30s to mid 40s mountains and
high plateaus. 78

Long term...Friday through Tuesday...models in good agreement
through Sunday, but begin to diverge thereafter. Dry northwest flow
aloft will continue at least into Sunday. Some weak embedded
shortwaves in the northwest flow will produce a short-lived increase
in cloud cover. Otherwise, the tranquil weather will continue. By
Sunday night, the New Run of the European model (ecmwf) shows an upper level low
diving out of British Columbia and clipping our northeast County Warning Area by Tuesday.
Meanwhile, the GFS continues the dry, west to northwest flow aloft.
At this time, will lean towards the more persistent GFS solution and
keep the weather dry. Daytime temperatures will remain near to
slightly above normal through the period. Earle


Aviation...previous discussion...06z tafs....VFR conditions are
forecast for tonight into Tuesday. Earlier gusty winds have
decreased with nightfall and expect winds to remain mainly less than
10 kts overnight. Wind should increase during Tuesday afternoon,
with dls, bdn and rdm possibly gusting as high as 20 kts once again.


Preliminary point temps/pops...
PDT 93 61 86 55 / 0 0 0 30
alw 96 67 89 60 / 0 0 0 20
psc 95 63 89 59 / 0 0 10 30
ykm 94 59 83 52 / 0 0 30 30
hri 96 63 89 54 / 0 0 10 30
eln 92 62 79 54 / 0 0 30 20
rdm 92 50 85 44 / 0 0 20 40
lgd 94 56 86 52 / 0 0 0 20
gcd 95 60 89 54 / 0 0 0 20
dls 92 63 80 57 / 0 0 30 40


PDT watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations