Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 kpih 162058 
afdpih

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
158 PM MST Sat Nov 16 2019

Short term...tonight through Monday night. Satellite imagery
shows shortwave feature has passed completely through east Idaho.
Some orographically induced cloud cover remains over the southern
and eastern Highlands as well as the Island Park region. Otherwise
dry conditions shifting into the region with building high
pressure. Inversions set up again for the overnight, and there is
just enough low level moisture available to introduce some low
confidence fog late tonight to mid morning Sunday. Weak shortwave
shifts through the Panhandle and Montana north of The Divide with
some very light precipitation on Sunday. Could see very light snow
amounts hit the higher elevations surrounding the Island Park
region otherwise little impact elsewhere in east Idaho. Temperatures
rebound Sunday into Monday before next Pacific shortwave trough
shifts into the pacnw Monday night. Models remain in decent
agreement for the short term, bringing moisture into the central
mountains Monday night, and a low confidence start to the
precipitation across The Sawtooth rec area late in the night. Dmh



Long term...Tuesday through Friday. Model consensus is fair
considering the emergence of a split flow developing Tuesday night.
The northern stream trough will generally impact the Central
Mountain and Island Park areas, though snowfall amounts will
generally be 1 to 2 inches. Heading into Wednesday, the northern
trough dips a bit southward, spreading rain and mountain snow to the
southeastern and south Central Highlands. Current projections show
about 1 to 2 inches south and east of Pocatello through Thursday
morning. With the passage of the upper trough, cooler temperatures
will make their way into the region with Wednesday highs about 15
degrees cooler than Tuesday. The cooler temperatures will remain
across the region through the weekend, but after Thursday, no more
precipitation is expected. Hinsberger




&&

Aviation...ridging is building back into the area, though some
LIFR ceilings just cleared from dij at taf issuance time. Not
expecting it to return today. Breezy conditions at pih and byi
today, should taper off by late afternoon. Some mid and high clouds
will roll in this evening through late tonight. Hinsberger



&&

Pih watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations