Scientific Forecaster Discussion

Return to Local Conditions & Forecast

Without Abbreviations
With Abbreviations

fxus65 kpih 242012 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello Idaho
212 PM MDT Mon Jun 24 2019

Short term...tonight through Wednesday. As expected a few showers
have developed along the Montana border this afternoon. Although
no lightning as of 140pm, we are still looking out for
thunderstorms to eventually develop in that area. In fact, the
favored area late this afternoon and evening will be north of a
Challis-Gilmore Summit-Rexburg-Driggs line. Although the threat is
still at or below 10%, we could still see a shower or storm pop up
across the southern Highlands. Right now, we are not expecting any
type of severe weather from anything...but conditions are right
for a brief burst of rain and gusty winds. Speaking of
has remained rather breezy across the snake plain. We have been
flirting with advisory thresholds across the Arco desert and inl,
but nothing widespread and certainly nothing that is expected to
reach that point before sunset. As low pressure develops along the
coast the next couple of days, southwest flow takes hold across
the state. That will usher in warmer temperatures through
midweek. This pattern also means with some subtle "waves" passing
overhead, we are expecting some occasional showers and
thunderstorms. Right now, we aren't looking for anything
widespread across central and eastern Idaho. We could even see a
few overnight showers, as we are forecast toward sunrise across
the central mountains to around Monida Pass. Some of the higher
resolution models suggest a few showers might develop farther
south and east, but for now we aren't forecasting anything over a
10% chance. For tomorrow, we should afternoon and evening activity
across the central mountains east to Island well as the
southern and southeast Highlands. The threat isn't too high, as
higher chances should occur over Lemhi County and on into
southwest Montana. For Wednesday, expect another round of isolated
showers and storms from Driggs to Monida Pass. It appears late in
the afternoon and evening, a band of develops ahead of a weak
cold front/wind shift across the Magic Valley north toward the
central mountains and also toward Monida Pass. Storm organization
and strength looks stronger tomorrow and Wednesday, meaning a
little higher threat of gusty winds and small hail. Keyes

Long term...Thursday through Monday...forecast in the long term
remains consistent. An area of low pressure will lie over the West
Coast and track onshore late week. Impacts to Idaho continue to be
windy conditions each afternoon, a chance for afternoon showers or
thunderstorms in central Idaho and warm/dry conditions. There is a
chance for a break in the warm/dry conditions on Friday while a
boundary tracks through the region and the low begins its
progression into Canada. The low is expected north of our area over
the weekend, allowing for warming temperatures into the 80s and
little other impacts. Np


Aviation...VFR weather will continue through the next 24
hours. Gusty winds impacting pih and Ida will subside after
sunset. Both airports will see breezy conditions tomorrow, but
only 15-20kts including gusts. Right now, any risk of storms for
any taf site is low. We have isolated storms impact dij, but not
until tomorrow afternoon and evening. Keyes


Fire weather...warming temperatures forecast tomorrow with a
similar forecast mid-week. There may be some relief in the
temperature trend Friday briefly before rebounding again over the
weekend. Windy conditions are forecast almost every afternoon as the
pressure gradient changes very little this week. The area of low
pressure aiding in this gradient is forecast to track into Canada by
the weekend, and will allow for relief in these conditions. Np


Hydrology...we continue to watch the Big Wood River at Hailey as
it continues to slowly fall. The latest forecast has it below
action stage in the next 24 hours, however the latest observations
had it suddenly leveling off or even a very slight rise in
level. We will have to watch this, but for now we are still
sticking with the idea it drops below that level tomorrow. Keyes


Pih watches/warnings/advisories...

National Weather Service Glossary of Abbreviations