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fxus65 kpub 200538 

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
1138 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Short term...(this evening through thursday)
issued at 347 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2019

Southern Colorado graced by dry conditions in combination with near
to above seasonal mid-June temperatures as well as some localized
gusty winds early this afternoon as evidenced by recent wind gusts
around 40 mph near Aguilar and Bear Creek respectively.

The potential still exists that isolated higher-based
thunderstorms(per inverted-v soundings) may develop from later this
afternoon into this evening(favoring southern locations) and have
depicted this potential in grids.

Otherwise, dry conditions in combination with near to above seasonal
minimum temperatures should be experienced over the majority of
the County Warning Area from later this evening into tonight.

For Thursday, generally dry conditions(outside of primarily higher-
based isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms favoring eastern
locations) are anticipated as zonal to southwesterly upper flow
interacts with surface low developing near Kim during Thursday

Forecast model soundings and computer models also indicate the
warmer forecast maximum temperatures should be realized Thursday
with maximum temperatures climbing into the 90s over many eastern

Finally, increasing winds should also be noted over the majority of
southern Colorado, primarily from the afternoon into the evening
hours on Thursday.

Also, existing Hydro highlights will be maintained due to continued
fast and high flows in creeks, streams and rivers.

Finally, increasing winds should also be noted over the majority of
southern Colorado, primarily from the afternoon into the evening
hours on Thursday.

Long term...(thursday night through wednesday)
issued at 347 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2019

..cooler and more unsettled weather this weekend...

Thursday night-Friday night...increasing southwest flow aloft is
progged across the region through Friday night, as an unseasonably
strong upper level system digs across the intermountain west and
into the Great Basin. The downslope flow will help to keep breezy
west to southwest winds across the region Thursday night and through
the day Friday, especially over and near the higher terrain. This
will keep overnight temperatures on the mild side with lows mainly
in the 40s and 50s areawide, along with boosting highs back to at
and above seasonal levels in the 80s to mid 90s across the plains on
Friday. Isolated storms will remain possible across the higher
terrain and Palmer dvd Thursday evening, with showers and storms
remaining possible along and west of the contdvd, Thursday night and
increasing through the day Friday, especially across the central
mts into the Pikes Peak region, with increasing moisture and lift
ahead of the digging system. Models also continue to indicate a
frontal boundary, across the northern High Plains Thursday night,
backing into eastern Colorado through the day on Friday, with low
level moisture pooling along and behind this boundary leading to
the potential for scattered storms, with the best potential along
and north of the Palmer dvd.

Saturday-Sunday...models continue to differ on the strength and
location of this unseasonably strong weather system lifting out
across The Rockies through the upcoming weekend, with the GFS still
the strongest and farthest south with a closed mid level low digging
into southern Utah on Saturday, before lifting out across western
Colorado, with the latest runs of the European model (ecmwf) and NAM farther north
and not as strong, though are stronger and farther south than their
previous solutions. The differing large scale solutions lead to
differing possible weather solutions, especially with the potential
for deep moist convection and possible severe storms across the
plains on Saturday. The farther south GFS solution would keep the
southeast plains dry-slotted with best convection potential north
and east across northeastern Colorado and northwestern Kansas, where
as the farther north solutions would allow for the surface boundary
to be farther south across the southeast plains, leading to better
chances of storms across the area on Saturday. At this time, stayed
with a blended model solution, which keeps better chances of storms
across the area. Either way, there looks be good chances of showers
and storms across the higher terrain, especially along and west of
the contdvd through the period. This, along with the unseasonably
strong and cold system, will likely bring some more accumulating
snowfall to the higher peaks through the weekend, with overnight
lows in the 30s and 40s across the area, with highs in the 60s and
70s across the plains and mainly 40s and 50s across the higher
terrain through the weekend. Those planning outdoor activities
across the higher terrain should plan for well below seasonal
temperatures through the weekend, with the coldest day being Sunday.

Monday-wedensday...a warmer and drier pattern remains in the offing
as a large ridge of high pressure is forecast to build into The
Rockies through the beginning of the week and become entrenched
across the area by the middle and end of next week. This will bring
steady warming back to above seasonal levels through the middle of
the next week, with more isolated diurnal convective activity.


Aviation...(for the 06z tafs through 06z Thursday night)
issued at 1136 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2019

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hrs at kcos, kpub and
kals. South to southwest winds are expected to increase Wednesday
afternoon at the terminal forecast sites, with kcos and kals
probably seeing gusts of 25-30 kts. There will be a small chance
for some showers/tstms at or near kcos and kpub in the afternoon
and early evening, but chances are too low to include in the
forecast at this time.


Pub watches/warnings/advisories...
Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for coz065>068-070-071.


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