Scientific Forecaster Discussion
fxus65 kpub 221658
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo Colorado
1058 am MDT sun Sep 22 2019
Short term...(today and tonight)
issued at 338 am MDT sun Sep 22 2019
Trough aloft passing over the region. Drier air is pushing into the
region as front has moved through. A few light showers were noted
developing behind the front over the far southeast plains. Temps at 3 PM
were in the 50s across most of the plains, but 40s were noted over
parts of north El Paso County. . in the San Luis valley (slv), mid 30s
were noted over the central part of the valley with 30s and 40s
vicinity mtns. Mtns were in the 20s and 30s.
Light showers currently over the far southeast plains will move out of the
region by sunrise with skies clearing shortly thereafter. The rest
of the day will be quite pleasant with Max temps about normal for
this time of the year. Highs on the plains should be mainly in the
70s with an 80 or two along the Arkansas River. A few u60s readings
will occur over north El Paso County. The valleys should see highs around
Only concern tonight will be the slv as temps will get down to
around 32 over the valley once again. At this time will allow
incoming shift to take a look at the new 12 UTC guidance, as another
freeze highlight may be needed.
Otherwise clear skies with temps in the 40s to l50s over the plains
are expected. \/Hodanish
Long term...(monday through saturday)
issued at 338 am MDT sun Sep 22 2019
Models in general agreement through the extended period. Ensembles
have very low spreads, especially further out in the period
leading to high forecast confidence.
Monday through Wednesday...an upper level low is forecast to
develop over Nevada on Monday while a quick moving disturbance
passes to the north. Models have come in drier with the latest
runs on Monday as the upper low drop south into southern Arizona.
Weak energy in the southwest flow ahead of the low may lead to
isolated showers and thunderstorms, mainly over the San Juan
range, east into the southern Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Not
overly confident in any precipitation at this time.
Expect dry conditions Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper low
drifts south into northern Mexico. At the surface, a cold front is
forecast to drop south across the plains Tuesday night into
Afternoon highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the mid to upper
80s with a few low 90s possible on the plains. Behind the cold
front, highs on Wednesday will reach the mid 70s to lower 80s.
Thursday and Friday...the upper level low is forecast to open into
a trough over the Desert Southwest and eject northeast into Kansas
for the end of the week. As it does so, showers and thunderstorms
are expected to develop by Thursday afternoon over the mountains,
spreading east into the plains through Friday. Thunderstorms will
likely produce gusty outflow winds and lightning. Locally heavy
rainfall may be possible, and burn scars will have to be
monitored. Afternoon highs will continue to reach into the mid to
upper 80s both days.
Saturday...the upper pattern is forecast to transition with an
upper level low strengthening over the West Coast, while high
pressure develops over the southeastern states. This will put
southern Colorado under brisk southwest flow. Increased fire
conditions are expected for the weekend, with winds easily meeting
criteria, however, humidity values will likely be too high.
Either way, caution should be advised for any outdoor burning
Aviation...(for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 1058 am MDT sun Sep 22 2019
VFR conditions and diurnal surface winds are expected throughout
the forecast period for kals, kcos, and kpub.